| MATCHUP | Philadelphia Phillies | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 88-74 | 94-68 |
| Spread | -1.5 149 | +1.5 -181 |
| Moneyline | -117 | -103 |
| Total | Over 7 (-114) | Under 7 (-106) |
| Where | Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia | |
| When | Wednesday, September 30, 2026 | |
| Time | 02:00 PM EDT | |
| TV | NBC | |
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies need a win to save their season and force a game 3 on Thursday. The Phillies have lost 5 of their last 6 games. The Philadelphia Phillies are batting .194 in these playoffs, with a .265 OBP and a .323 slugging percentage. The Philadelphia Phillies’ pitching staff has a 5.63 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. Alex Bohm leads the Philadelphia Phillies with 1 hit and 1 RBI, while Brandon Marsh and J.T. Realmuto have combined for 2 hits and 0 RBI.
Cristopher Sanchez gets the ball for the Philadelphia Phillies, and he is 18-7 with a 2.91 ERA and 231 strikeouts this season. Sanchez is 0-5 with a 3.26 ERA and 55 strikeouts in his career against the Atlanta Braves. Sanchez is 0-0 with a 2.79 ERA and 19 strikeouts in his postseason career.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview
The Atlanta Braves look to win their first playoff series since the 2021 season. The Braves have split their last 8 games. The Atlanta Braves are batting .233 in these playoffs and have a .324 OBP and a .433 slugging percentage. The Atlanta Braves’ pitching staff has a 3.00 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP. Michael Harris II leads the Atlanta Braves with 3 hits and 0 RBI, while Ozzie Albies and Mauricio Dubon have combined for 2 hits and 1 RBI.
Tyler Mahle gets the ball for the Atlanta Braves, and he is 7-10 with a 3.98 ERA and 173 strikeouts this season. Mahle is 2-2 with a 2.70 ERA and 27 strikeouts in his career against the Philadelphia Phillies. Mahle will make his playoff debut when he takes the mound.
Why the Atlanta Braves will win
- The Braves have won six of their last seven games as home underdogs after playing the previous day.
- The Phillies have lost each of their last five Wednesday games as road favorites against NL East opponents.
- The Braves have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as home underdogs after playing the previous day.
- The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 day games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
- The Braves have lost each of their last four playoff games following a win.
- The Phillies have won five of their last six day games following a loss.
- The Braves have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games at Truist Park following a win.
- The Phillies have covered the run line in four of their last five games as road favorites following a loss.
- The Phillies have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games at Truist Park.
- The Phillies have led after 5 innings in 10 of their last 13 playoff games against NL East opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the last four games between the Phillies and Braves have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Each of the Phillies’ last four playoff games as favorites have gone OVER the total runs line.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Phillies’ last four games.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the last four games between the Phillies and Braves.
Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts
- Austin Riley has hit a home run in each of the Braves’ last three games at Truist Park.
- Tyler Mahle has recorded five or more strikeouts in four of his five previous appearances with his team as a home underdog against NL East opponents.
- Mauricio Dubon has recorded at least one hit in each of the Braves’ last eight games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Michael Harris ranks 8th in the league in Hits (174) this season.
Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts
- Cristopher Sanchez has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last five Wednesday appearances in day games with the Phillies as favorites.
- Trea Turner has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies’ last seven games as favorites against the Braves.
- Otto Kemp has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances with the Phillies as favorites against NL East opponents.
- Cristopher Sanchez ranks T1st in the league for Wins (18) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Braves rank 28th in the league for walks this season (465).
- The Braves are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both home runs and batting average this season.
- The Phillies rank 6th in the league for walks allowed this season (484).
- The Phillies rank 24th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.395).
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction
I considered the Phillies because Sanchez has been one of the best pitchers in baseball, and Mahle is making his playoff debut. The Phillies should have the mound advantage. However, Sanchez has allowed 34 hits and 18 runs in his last 31.2 innings. It’s been a rough month for Sanchez. The Braves have also had success against Sanchez, with current hitters batting .297, reaching base .331, and hitting 4 homers in 138 at-bats.
Mahle has been at his best at home, where he has a 2.74 ERA and a .215 batting average allowed. The Braves are playing the better ball and have the pitcher who has been better over the last several starts. I’ll lean Braves at home with the pick em price.