| MATCHUP | Philadelphia Phillies | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 82-66 | 87-61 |
| Spread | -1.5 155 | +1.5 -189 |
| Moneyline | -101 | -119 |
| Total | Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105) |
| Where | Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia | |
| When | Saturday, September 12, 2026 | |
| Time | 07:15 PM EDT | |
| TV | MLB.TV | |
Atlanta Braves Preview
The Atlanta Braves have a 87-61 record this season and are sitting in the 1st place of the NL East. They have a 50-26 home record and are coming off a 6-5 home win against the Phillies. They will face the Cubs and the Astros next.
The Atlanta Braves have a .246 batting average this season, .309 OBP and .409 Slugging percentage. Atlanta’s pitching staff has a 3.57 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Michael Harris II is the team’s best hitter with a .283 batting average. Matt Olson leads the team in RBI with 82 and adds a team-high 38 home runs.
Tyler Mahle (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves, and he has a 5-10 record, 4.05 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.
Philadelphia Phillies Preview
The Philadelphia Phillies have a 82-66 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the NL East. They have a 41-32 away record and are coming off a 5-6 road loss against the Braves. They will face the Nationals and the Mets next.
The Philadelphia Phillies have a .241 batting average this season, .311 OBP and .399 Slugging percentage. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has a 3.98 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Bryce Harper is the team’s best hitter with a .271 batting average. Kyle Schwarber leads the team in RBI with 92 and adds a team-high 44 home runs.
The Phillies have not yet announced a starting pitcher for this game.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves Betting Trends: September 12, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Tyler Mahle Record this season: 5-10 ERA: 4.05
- Home Record: 4-3
- Last 5 against Phillies: 1-2
Why the Atlanta Braves will win
- The Braves have won each of their last eight games against NL East opponents following a home win.
- The Phillies have lost each of their last seven games as underdogs against NL opponents.
- The Braves have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 games against NL East opponents following a home win.
- The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight Saturday games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
- The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six road games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
- The Braves have led after 5 innings in eight of their last 10 home games against NL East opponents.
- The Braves have won the first inning in each of their last four home games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: TBD
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
- The Braves have lost each of their last 10 games after going to extra innings.
- The Phillies have won each of their last eight games after going to extra innings.
- The Braves have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games as favorites after going to extra innings.
- The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last eight Saturday night road games.
- The Phillies have led after 3 innings in seven of their last eight night games against NL opponents.
- The Phillies have led after 5 innings in seven of their last eight night games against NL opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Braves’ last four games after going to extra innings have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Six of the Phillies’ last seven games as underdogs against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in seven of the Phillies’ last eight games as underdogs.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of Tyler Mahle’s last five home appearances as a starter.
Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts
- Matt Olson has hit a home run in each of the Braves’ last two home games against the Phillies.
- Tyler Mahle has recorded six or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine appearances with his team as a favorite against NL East opponents.
- Drake Baldwin has recorded at least one hit in each of the Braves’ last 17 night games.
- Tyler Mahle has recorded a win in three of his last four home appearances.
- Matt Olson ranks T4th in the league in Home Runs (38) this season.
Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts
- Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in three of the Phillies’ last four games against the Braves.
- Luis Arraez has recorded two or more hits in each of his last nine appearances at Truist Park against opponents that held a winning record.
- Luis Arraez ranks T1st in the league in Hits (177) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Braves rank 29th in the league for triples this season (11).
- The Braves rank 28th in the league for walks this season (422).
- The Phillies rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (1443).
- The Phillies are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.
Phillies vs Braves Prediction
The Braves are 7-3 in their last 10 meetings against the Phillies and have won their last two visits in Minnesota.
In this Phillies vs Braves Prediction, the Braves are coming as -115 home favorites. I like the Braves at home with Mahle on the mound, who is playing like an All-Star since joining the team, having a 1.24 ERA and 0.94 ERA. He has given up one run or less in five of his last six starts and the Braves’ bullpen has been in far better form than the Phillies’ lately. Since the Phillies will not start Wheeler or Sanchez I am going to back the better pitching and better bullpen in this one. Take the Braves to win.