Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction 9/11/2026 Today’s MLB Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Sep 7, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber (12) reacts after hitting a home run during the eighth inning against the Atlanta Braves at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Philadelphia Phillies
Atlanta Braves
Team Records
82-65
86-61
Spread
+1.5 -143
-1.5 119
Moneyline
+157
-192
Total
Over 7 (-120)
Under 7 (100)
Where
Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia
When
Friday, September 11, 2026
Time
07:15 PM EDT
TV
MLB.TV
The Philadelphia Phillies and the Atlanta Braves meet Friday in MLB action from Truist Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The Philadelphia Phillies will send out Aaron Nola for the start here and Nola is 6-10 with a 4.76 ERA and 162 strikeouts this season. Chris Sale will start here for the Braves and is 14-9 with a 2.10 ERA and 184 strikeouts this season.
Philadelphia Phillies Recap
The Philadelphia Phillies come into this game looking to bounce back from their 2-1 loss at the hands of the Houston Astros last time out to sit at 82-65 this season. After this series, the Phillies will head on the road again for a series against Washington.
Phillies Alternate Wins & Losses In 7 Straight
Kyle Schwarber has 127 hits with 17 doubles, 44 home runs and 92 RBIs. Brandon Marsh has 131 hits with 19 doubles, 17 home runs and 58 RBIs while Justin Crawford also has 102 hits with 18 doubles, 4 triples, 2 home runs and 35 RBIs. Trea Turner has 141 hits with 27 doubles, 19 home runs and 56 RBIs and Bryce Harper’s added 139 hits with 28 doubles, 27 home runs and 82 RBIs this season.
Atlanta Braves Recap
The Atlanta Braves come into this game looking to add on to their 3-1 win over the Rays last time out to improve to 86-61 this season. After this series, the Braves will head on the road for a series against the Chicago Cubs.
Braves Snap Three-Game Slide
Drake Baldwin has 135 hits with 16 doubles, 23 home runs and 71 RBIs while Matt Olson has 141 hits with 33 doubles, 37 homers and 81 RBIs. Ozzie Albies has added 139 hits with 26 doubles, 21 home runs and 68 RBIs and Ronald Acuna Jr. has 89 hits with 16 doubles, a triple, 16 home runs and 45 RBIs. Austin Riley has 115 hits with 21 doubles, 16 home runs and 67 RBIs and Michael Harris II has 152 hits with 32 doubles, 24 home runs and 80 RBIs and Mauricio Dubon has 137 hits with 25 doubles, 2 triples, 11 home runs and 66 RBIs this season.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves Betting Trends: September 11, 2026
Probable Starting Pitcher: Chris Sale Record this season: 14-9 ERA: 2.10
Home Record: 8-3
Last 5 against Phillies: 4-0
Why the Atlanta Braves will win
The Braves have won each of their last seven games against NL East opponents following a home win.
The Phillies have lost seven of their last eight road games against the Braves following a home loss.
The Braves have covered the run line in each of their last nine games against NL East opponents following a home win.
The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games as underdogs following a home loss.
The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last five road games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
The Braves have led after 5 innings in eight of their last nine home games against NL East opponents.
The Phillies have lost the first inning in four of their last five road games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
Probable Starting Pitcher: Aaron Nola Record this season: 6-10 ERA: 4.76
Road Record: 5-6
Last 5 against Braves: 1-1
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
The Braves have lost five of their last six games as home favorites against the Phillies following a home win.
The Phillies have won four of their last five games as road underdogs against the Braves following a loss.
The Phillies have covered the run line in each of their last nine games as road underdogs against NL East opponents following a home loss.
The Braves have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven games as favorites following a win.
The Phillies have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven night games against NL opponents.
The Phillies have led after 5 innings in six of their last seven night games against NL opponents.
Total Runs Facts
Each of the Phillies’ last six games as underdogs against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Three of the Braves’ last four games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
There has been no run scored during the first inning in eight of the Braves’ last nine games as favorites against NL East opponents.
There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Phillies’ last four games.
Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts
Sean Murphy has hit a home run in each of his last two home appearances against the Phillies.
Chris Sale has recorded eight or more strikeouts in each of his last five appearances with the Braves as favorites.
Drake Baldwin has recorded at least one hit in each of the Braves’ last 16 night games.
Chris Sale has recorded a win in each of his last seven appearances against NL East opponents.
Chris Sale ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for Earned Run Average (2.10) this season.
Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts
Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in four of the Phillies’ last five games against the Braves.
Aaron Nola has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last eight Friday appearances against NL East teams that held a winning record.
Luis Arraez has recorded two or more hits in each of his last eight appearances at Truist Park against opponents that held a winning record.
Aaron Nola has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances in night games.
Luis Arraez ranks 1st in the league in Hits (175) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
The Braves rank 29th in the league for triples this season (11).
The Braves rank 28th in the league for walks this season (419).
The Phillies rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (1437).
The Phillies are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction
I’m on the Braves in this one. I think this is a spot for Atlanta with Chris Sale going on the mound and in vintage Chris Sale form. On the flipside, you have Philadelphia sending out Nola who has had some success at times this season, but the overall scope is that Nola has been brutal for much of the year so give me Atlanta here
