Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction 9/20/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

The Philadelphia Phillies and the Arizona Diamondbacks meet Saturday in MLB action from Chase Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Philadelphia Phillies will send out Aaron Nola here and Nola is 4-9 with a 6.44 ERA and 84 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Phillies, Nola is 2-2 with a 5.67 ERA and 33 strikeouts. Zac Gallen will get the nod for the Diamondbacks here and is 12-14 with a 4.73 ERA and 163 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Phillies, Gallen is 2-1 with a 2.66 ERA and 21 strikeouts.

Philadelphia Phillies Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies come into this game looking to build on their 8-2 win over the Diamondbacks in Friday’s series opener to sit at 92-62 this season. After this series, the Phillies will head home for a series against the Miami Marlins.

Phillies Win 8 Of Their Last 10

Nick Castellanos has 134 hits with 27 doubles including 17 home runs and 69 RBIs while Kyle Schwarber has 138 hits with a team-high 53 home runs and 128 RBIs but also has a team-high 183 strikeouts as well on the year. Bryce Harper has 12 stolen bases, 32 doubles, 27 home runs and 75 RBIs. Trea Turner also has 179 hits with 7 triples, 15 home runs, 69 RBIs and a team-high 36 stolen bases. Max Kepler has 18 doubles and Bryson Stott has 20 doubles, 3 triples, 12 homers and 65 RBIs while Stott also has 23 stolen bases as well this season.

Arizona Diamondbacks Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks come into this game looking to rebound from their loss at the hands of the Phillies in Friday’s matchup to sit at 77-77 this season. After this series, the Diamondbacks will take ont he Los Angeles Dodgers in a series at home.

Diamondbacks Lose Back-To-Back Games

Corbin Carroll has 140 hits with 30 home runs, 78 RBIs, 17 triples and 30 doubles this season. Carroll also has a team-high 29 stolen bases and Geraldo Perdomo has 26 stolen bases as well as 19 home runs and 97 RBIs with a team-high 163 hits this season. Ketel Marte’s added 26 home runs and 67 RBIs as well on the year and Lourdes Gurriel has 124 hits with 24 doubles, 19 home runs and 80 RBIs.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Trends: September 20, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Zac Gallen      Record this season: 12-14      ERA: 4.73
• Home Record: 5-7
• Last 5 against Phillies: 1-2

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

• The Diamondbacks have won five of their last six games after playing the previous day.
• The Phillies have lost four of their last five games against NL West opponents following a win.
• The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games against NL West opponents following a win.
• The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in six of their last eight home games against the Phillies following a loss.
• The Diamondbacks have won the first inning in each of their last 10 home games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games at Chase Field.
• The Phillies have trailed after 5 innings in nine of their last 10 games as road underdogs against NL West opponents.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Aaron Nola      Record this season: 4-9      ERA: 6.44
• Road Record: 0-5
• Last 5 against Diamondbacks: 3-2

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

• The Diamondbacks have lost each of their last four games as favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Phillies have won six of their last seven games as underdogs.
• The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as favorites against National League opponents.
• The Phillies have covered the run line in eight of their last nine night games against National League opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Nine of the Phillies’ last 10 games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Diamondbacks’ last five games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 14 of the Diamondbacks’ last 15 home games against National League opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last four games at Chase Field.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

• Alek Thomas has hit a home run in each of his last two home appearances against the Phillies after playing the previous day.
• Zac Gallen has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances with the Diamondbacks as favorites against NL opponents.
• Zac Gallen has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last five home appearances against NL opponents.
• Corbin Carroll has recorded at least one hit in each of the Diamondbacks’ last 19 games as favorites.
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has recorded a Double in four of his last five appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a winning record.
• Geraldo Perdomo ranks 5th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.391) this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

• Max Kepler has hit a home run in five of his last seven appearances against the Diamondbacks after playing the previous day.
• Alec Bohm has recorded a Double in four of the Phillies’ last five road games against the Diamondbacks.
• Aaron Nola has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances against NL opponents.
• Aaron Nola has recorded six or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine road appearances against NL opponents.
• Trea Turner has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 15 road appearances.
• Kyle Schwarber ranks 2nd in the league in Home Runs (53) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Diamondbacks rank 1st in the league for triples this season (37).
• The Diamondbacks rank 3rd in the league for RBIs this season (739).
• The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for walks allowed this season (418).
• The Phillies rank 3rd in the league for hits this season (1363).

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

I’m on the Diamondbacks in this one. I know the Phillies looked solid in the opener, and I never thought I’d say this, but Zac Gallen has been the far more reliable and consistent option in his recent starts. Aaron Nola can be ace level, or he can give up six runs in a start like he did last time out, and I think the Diamondbacks, who have been solid against righties all year long, can get to him here. The Diamondbacks are still trying to keep their season alive too, so I’ll take a shot on the Diamondbacks at home in this one.