Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction 9/1/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

Nikos Lagouretos

46 minutes ago

Aug 26, 2026; Seattle, Washington, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Jesús Luzardo (44) throws against the Seattle Mariners during the fifth inning at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

MATCHUP	Philadelphia Phillies	Arizona Diamondbacks
Team Records	78-60	73-66
Spread	-1.5 123	+1.5 -149
Moneyline	-142	+118
Total	Over 7.5 (-113)	Under 7.5 (-106)
Where	Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona
When	Tuesday, September 1, 2026
Time	09:40 PM EDT
TV	MLB.TV

In this article, we will formulate a Phillies vs Diamondbacks Prediction for this MLB matchup on Tuesday, September 1st in the second game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Arizona Diamondbacks Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a 73-66 record this season and are sitting in 3rd place of the NL West. They have a 40-30 home record and are coming off a 2-1 home loss against the Phillies. They will face the Astros and the Royals next.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a .244 batting average this season, .316 OBP, and .397 slugging percentage. Arizona’s pitching staff has a 4.17 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Gabriel Moreno is the Diamondbacks’ best hitter with a .303 batting average. Ketel Marte leads the team in RBI with 67, while Nolan Arenado adds a team-high 21 home runs.

Eduardo Rodriguez (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks, with a 14-4 record, 2.50 ERA, and 1.19 WHIP.

Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies have a 78-60 record this season and are sitting in 2nd place of the NL East. They have a 40-30 road record and are coming off a 2-1 road win against the Diamondbacks. They will face the Braves and the Astros next.

The Philadelphia Phillies have a .243 batting average this season, .313 OBP, and .402 slugging percentage. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has a 4.03 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Brandon Marsh is the Phillies’ best hitter with a .271 batting average. Kyle Schwarber leads the team in RBI with 82, adding a team-high 40 home runs.

Jesus Luzardo (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Phillies, with a 12-5 record, 3.09 ERA, and 1.12 WHIP.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Trends: September 1, 2026

Probable Starting Pitcher: Eduardo Rodriguez Record this season: 14-4 ERA: 2.50
Home Record: 8-3
Last 5 against Phillies: 2-1

Why the Arizona Diamondbacks will win

The Diamondbacks have won each of their last seven games as underdogs following a home loss.
The Phillies have lost four of their last six games as road favorites against NL opponents.
The Diamondbacks have covered the run line in each of their last 10 night games against NL opponents following a loss.
The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games as road favorites against NL opponents.
The Phillies have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four road games against NL West opponents.
The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six road games against opponents that held a winning record.

Probable Starting Pitcher: Jesus Luzardo Record this season: 12-5 ERA: 3.09
Road Record: 8-0
Last 5 against Diamondbacks: 1-2

Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win

The Phillies have won each of their last eight games against teams that held a winning record.
The Diamondbacks have lost four of their last five night games against teams that held a winning record.
The favorites have covered the run line in five of the Phillies’ last six games.
The Diamondbacks have failed to cover the run line in six of their last seven night games against NL East opponents following a home loss.
The Diamondbacks have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five night games against opponents that held a winning record.
The Phillies have led after 3 innings in nine of their last 10 night games against NL opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

Eight of the Phillies’ last nine road games against NL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Seven of the Diamondbacks’ last eight games as home underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
There has been no run scored during the first inning in eight of the Phillies’ last nine games as road favorites against NL opponents.
There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Diamondbacks’ last five home games.

Arizona Diamondbacks Player Prop Facts

Corbin Carroll has hit a home run in two of the Diamondbacks’ last three games as home underdogs against the Phillies.
Eduardo Rodriguez has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his five previous appearances against the Phillies.
Ildemaro Vargas has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 appearances with the Diamondbacks as underdogs against NL East opponents.
Eduardo Rodriguez has recorded a win in each of his last five appearances with the Diamondbacks as underdogs.
Eduardo Rodriguez ranks T5th in the league for Wins (14) this season.

Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts

Edmundo Sosa has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances.
Jesus Luzardo has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last nine appearances in night games.
Jesus Luzardo has recorded a win in each of his four previous appearances with the Phillies as road favorites against NL West opponents.
Bryan De La Cruz has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
Luis Arraez ranks T1st in the league in Hits (164) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

The Diamondbacks rank 1st in the league for triples this season (35).
The Diamondbacks rank 29th in the league for strikeouts this season (948).
The Phillies rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (1358).
The Phillies are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and walks allowed this season.

Phillies vs Diamondbacks Prediction

The Diamondbacks are 4-2 in their last 6 meetings against the Phillies, having won two of their last three meetings in Arizona.

In this Phillies vs Diamondbacks Prediction, the Phillies are coming as -135 road favorites. I like the pitching in this matchup, as both starters have been excellent this season with a combined 5.59 ERA. Their home/away splits are even better, with Luzardo being one of the best road pitchers in baseball with an 8-0 record and 1.79 ERA, while Rodriguez has been better at home with a 2.47 ERA. Yesterday’s game had just three total runs and both teams are 11-4 to the under in their last 15 games combined. Take the under 7.5 runs in this one.