San Diego (82-69) vs New York (78-73)
September 17, 2025 at 07:10 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: New York +1.5 — Over/Under: +8
In this article we will formulate a Padres vs Mets prediction for this MLB game on Wednesday, September 17th at Citi Field in New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
The San Diego Padres are 82-69 this season after they lost game one by a score of 8-3 on Tuesday night. San Diego allowed seven runs in the first two innings and never had a chance to win. The Padres recorded seven hits in the game and they were led by Fermin, Cronenworth, and Merrill, who all had one RBI in the loss. San Diego started King, who allowed 10 hits and eight earned runs over 3.0 innings for the loss, while Hart, Matsui, and Rodriguez combined for 5.0 scoreless innings.
Prior to this series, the Padres won three out of four against the Rockies, but did lose two out of three against the Reds before that. San Diego has lost four of their last seven games and they are second in the NL West standings. The San Diego pitching staff has a 3.67 ERA with a 1.20 WHIP and a .226 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 644 runs with a .251 batting average and a .321 on base percentage this season. Manny Machado has led San Diego with 25 home runs and 88 RBIs, while Fernando Tatis has added 22 home runs and 65 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for San Diego is Nick Pivetta, who is 13-5 with a 2.73 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP over 171.1 innings pitched this season.
New York Mets Betting Preview
The New York Mets are 78-73 this year after they won game one by a score of 8-3 last night. New York scored five runs in the first inning and never looked back in the easy win. The Mets recorded 10 hits in the game and they were led by McNeil and Baty, who both had two RBIs in the win. New York started Holmes, who allowed three hits and two earned runs over 4.0 innings, while Manaea picked up the win in relief.
Prior to this series, the Mets lost two out of three against the Rangers and all four against the Phillies. New York has lost eight of their last ten games and they are second in the NL East standings. The New York pitching staff has a 4.01 ERA with a 1.33 WHIP and a .246 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 712 runs with a .250 batting average and a .327 on base percentage this season. Pete Alonso has led New York with 35 home runs and 118 RBIs, while Juan Soto has added 40 home runs and 98 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is David Peterson, who is 9-5 with a 3.77 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP over 162.1 innings pitched this year.
Why the Padres will beat the Mets
The Padres have won each of their last seven night games against the Mets at Citi Field following a road loss.
The Mets have lost five of their last six games as favorites after playing the previous day.
The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last 10 night games against the Mets at Citi Field following a loss.
The Mets have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against National League opponents after playing the previous day.
Total Runs Facts
Each of the Mets’ last four games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
Five of the Padres’ last six night games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last five games as home favorites against National League opponents.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last four games against National League opponents.
New York Mets Player Prop Facts
Pete Alonso has hit a home run in four of the Mets’ last five games as home favorites against NL West opponents.
Brandon Nimmo has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last 13 home games against NL opponents.
Juan Soto ranks 7th in the league in Home Runs (40) this season.
San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts
Jackson Merrill has hit a home run in four of the Padres’ last five games against NL opponents.
Nick Pivetta has recorded six or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
Fernando Tatis Jr. has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 Wednesday appearances.
Xander Bogaerts has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances with the Padres as road underdogs against NL East opponents.
Nick Pivetta ranks 8th amongst qualified players for Earned Run Average (2.73) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
The Mets rank 5th in the league for steals this season (134).
The Mets are one of only five teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and home runs this season.
The Padres rank 29th in the league for home runs this season (138).
The Padres rank 2nd in the league for runs allowed this season (586).
Padres vs Mets Prediction
New York was able to get a massive win on Tuesday in the NL wild card race and they will look for their third straight win here. The Mets are 47-29 at home this year, while the Padres are 35-41 on the road. San Diego is trailing the Dodgers by two games in the NL West and they are starting Pivetta, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in five straight starts. The Mets are going with Peterson, who has allowed 3, 4, and 8 earned runs in his last three starts. Take the Padres to get the victory here.