San Diego (55-48) vs St. Louis (53-51)
July 25, 2025 at 07:15 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: St. Louis +1.5 — Over/Under: +8.5
In this article we will formulate a Padres vs Cardinals prediction for this MLB game on Friday, July 25th at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
The San Diego Padres are 55-48 this year after they lost game one by a score of 9-7 on Thursday night. San Diego led 2-0 in the first inning, but they allowed the next seven runs and never recovered for the loss. The Padres recorded 13 hits in the game and they were led by Machado, who went 3-5 with one home run and two RBIs in the loss. San Diego started Darvish, who allowed eight hits and eight earned runs over 3.1 innings for the loss, while Peralta allowed one earned run in relief.
Prior to this series, the Padres lost two out of three against the Marlins, but did win two out of three against the Nationals. San Diego has lost three games in a row and they are currently second in the NL West standings. The San Diego pitching staff has a 3.63 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and a .231 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 414 runs with a .246 batting average and a .315 on base percentage this season. Manny Machado has led San Diego with 19 home runs and 63 RBIs, while Fernando Tatis has added 17 home runs and 43 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for San Diego is Nick Pivetta, who is 10-2 with a 2.81 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP over 115.1 innings pitched this year.
St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview
The St. Louis Cardinals are 53-51 this season after they won game one in this series by a score of 9-7 on Thursday. St. Louis had their lead cut to 8-7 in the fifth inning, but they added an insurance run in the sixth to seal the victory. The Cardinals recorded 12 hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Contreras, who went 2-3 with one home run and four RBIs in the win. St. Louis started Gray, who allowed 11 hits and six earned runs over 5.0 innings for the win, while Helsley picked up the save.
Prior to this series, the Cardinals lost two out of three against the Rockies and all three against the Diamondbacks. St. Louis has lost five of their last seven games and they are currently fourth in the NL Central standings. The St. Louis pitching staff has a 4.23 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and a .256 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 470 runs with a .253 batting average and a .322 on base percentage this season. Wilson Contreras has led St. Louis with 14 home runs, 61 RBIs, and four stolen bases, while Nolan Arenado has added 10 home runs and 43 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for St. Louis is Miles Mikolas, who is 5-7 with a 5.20 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP over 97.0 innings pitched this season.
Why the Padres will beat the Cardinals
- The Cardinals have lost each of their last seven night games against National League opponents following a win.
- The Padres have won four of their last five night games following a loss.
- The Cardinals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven night games against the Padres at Busch Stadium following a home win.
- The Padres have covered the run line in 10 of their last 11 night games at Busch Stadium following a loss.
- The Padres have won the first inning in four of their last five night games against the Cardinals at Busch Stadium.
- The Padres have led after 3 innings in three of their last four night games against the Cardinals at Busch Stadium.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Cardinals’ last four home games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Six of the Padres’ last eight road games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Cardinals’ last five games as underdogs.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Padres’ last seven games as road favorites against NL Central opponents.
Padres vs Cardinals Prediction
St. Louis was able to get a much needed win to start this series on Thursday night, but they have had plenty of struggles over the last two weeks. The Cardinals are 30-20 at home this year, while the Padres are just 24-30 on the road. San Diego is on a small losing streak and they are starting Pivetta, who has allowed a total of two earned runs in his last five starts. St. Louis is going with Mikolas, who has allowed at least five earned runs in three of his last four starts. Take San Diego to bounce back at home.