Atlanta Braves (24-26) vs San Diego Padres (28-21)
Game Info: Saturday, May 24, 2025 at 4:10 pm (Truist Park)
The Line: Betting Odds: Atlanta Braves +105 / San Diego Padres -125 — Over/Under: 8.5
In this article we will formulate a Padres vs Braves prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, May 24th at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
The San Diego Padres are 28-21 this season after they won game one in this series by a score of 2-1. San Diego tied the game at one in the second inning, but they didn’t score again until the ninth, when they hit the winning home run. The Padres recorded six hits in the game and they were led by Machado and Sheets, who both hit a home run in the win. San Diego started Pivetta, who allowed four hits and one earned run over 6.0 innings, while Adam got the win and Suarez picked up the save.
Prior to this series, the Padres lost all three games against the Blue Jays and all three against the Mariners. San Diego has lost six of their last seven games and they are currently third in the NL West standings. The San Diego pitching staff has a 3.45 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP and a .221 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 207 runs with a .255 batting average and a .320 on base percentage this season. Fernando Tatis has led San Diego with 12 home runs and 27 RBIs, while Gavin Sheets has added nine home runs and 29 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for San Diego is Michael King, who is 4-2 with a 2.59 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP over 55.2 innings pitched this season.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview
The Atlanta Braves are 24-26 this year after they lost game one on Friday night. Atlanta scored a run in the first inning to lead 1-0, but they didn’t score over the final eight innings for the loss. The Braves recorded six hits in the game and they were led by Acuna, who went 2-4 with one home run and one RBI in the loss. Atlanta started Sale, who allowed four hits and one earned run over 7.0 innings pitched, while Iglesias picked up the loss in relief.
Prior to this series, the Braves lost two games against the Nationals, but did win two out of three against the Red Sox before that. Atlanta has lost four of their last five games and they are currently third in the NL East standings. The Atlanta pitching staff has a 3.81 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and a .235 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 206 runs with a .245 batting average and a .317 on base percentage this year. Matt Olson has led Atlanta with 11 home runs and 28 RBIs, while Austin Riley has added eight home runs and 28 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Atlanta is Grant Holmes, who is 2-3 with a 4.01 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP over 51.2 innings pitched this year.
Why the Braves will beat the Padres
- The underdogs have won seven of the last eight games between the Padres and Braves at Truist Park.
- The Padres have lost each of their last three games as road favorites.
- The underdogs have covered the run line in 14 of the last 15 games between the Padres and Braves at Truist Park.
- The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games as favorites.
- The Braves have won the first inning in each of their last three games against the Padres at Truist Park.
- The Padres have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games.
Why the Padres will beat the Braves
- The Padres have won 15 of their last 16 games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Braves have lost 10 of their last 11 day games against NL West opponents.
- The Padres have covered the run line in 11 of their last 12 games at Truist Park.
- The Braves have failed to cover the run line in 10 of their last 11 day games against NL West opponents.
- The Braves have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three day games against NL West opponents.
- The Braves have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last three day games against opponents that held a winning record.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Braves’ last four day games against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Ten of the Padres’ last 12 games as favorites against the Braves have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Braves’ last five games.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Padres’ last five games at Truist Park.
Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts
- Austin Riley has recorded at least one RBI in six of his last eight appearances with the Braves as home underdogs against NL West opponents.
- Matt Olson has scored at least one run in five of the Braves’ last six games.
- Matt Olson has hit a home run in each of the Braves’ last two games as underdogs.
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 Saturday appearances with the Braves as underdogs.
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has recorded at least one Single in each of his last five appearances with the Braves as underdogs.
San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts
- Gavin Sheets has hit at least one home run in each of the Padres’ last two road games.
- Manny Machado has recorded a Double in each of his last three appearances with his team as a road favorite against the Braves.
- Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 road appearances against NL East opponents.
- Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one Single in each of his last nine road appearances against NL East opponents.
- Manny Machado has recorded at least one RBI in each of the Padres’ last four road games against NL opponents.
- Manny Machado has scored at least one run in seven of the Padres’ last eight road games against NL opponents.
Padres vs Braves Prediction
San Diego was able to snap their losing streak on Friday night with a badly needed win, but their offense continues to do very little at the plate. The Padres are 12-13 on the road this year, while the Braves are 15-8 at home. Atlanta has lost four of their last five games and they are starting Holmes, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. The Padres are going with King, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five outings. Both of these pitchers have been pretty solid to start the year and with San Diego struggling to hit, I like the under here.