Orioles vs Yankees Prediction 9/26/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate an Orioles vs Yankees prediction for this MLB game on Friday, September 26th at Yankee Stadium in New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles are 75-84 this season after they won two out of three against Tampa Bay by scores of 6-0, 2-6, and 6-5. In their game three win, Baltimore trailed 5-2 in the sixth inning, but scored the last four runs to escape with the victory. The Orioles recorded nine hits in the game and they were led by Mountcastle and Mayo, who both had two RBIs in the win. Baltimore started Povich, who allowed 10 hits and five earned runs over 5.2 innings, while four pitchers combined for the last 3.1 innings. 

Prior to that series, the Orioles lost three out of four against the Yankees, but did sweep the White Sox in three games before that. Baltimore has lost three of their last five games and they are last in the AL East standings. The Baltimore pitching staff has a 4.57 ERA with a 1.37 WHIP and a .259 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 670 runs with a .236 batting average and a .305 on base percentage this season. Jackson Holliday has led Baltimore with 17 home runs and 55 RBIs, while Gunnar Henderson has added 16 home runs and 67 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Baltimore is Trevor Rogers, who is 9-2 with a 1.35 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP over 106.2 innings pitched this season. 

New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees are 91-68 this year after they won all three games against the White Sox by scores of 3-2, 8-1, and 5-3. In their game three win, New York trailed 3-1 in the fourth inning, but scored the last four runs to get the victory. The Yankees recorded eight hits in the game and they were led by Stanton, who went 1-3 with three RBIs in the win. New York started Rodon, who allowed four hits and three earned runs over 6.0 innings for the win, while Bednar got the save. 

Prior to that series, the Yankees won three out of four against the Orioles and two out of three against the Twins. New York has won five games in a row and they are tied for first in the AL East standings. The New York pitching staff has a 3.94 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a .230 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 832 runs with a .251 batting average and a .332 on base percentage this season. Aaron Judge has led New York with 51 home runs and 109 RBIs, while Cody Bellinger has added 29 home runs and 97 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Will Warren, who is 8-8 with a 4.35 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP over 157.1 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Yankees will beat the Orioles 

The Yankees have won each of their last six games at Yankee Stadium against teams that held a losing record.
The Orioles have lost 10 of their last 11 games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
The Orioles have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine road games against the Yankees following a home win.
The Yankees have covered the run line in each of their last four games after playing the previous day.
The Orioles have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games at Yankee Stadium against opponents that held a winning record.
The Orioles have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four games at Yankee Stadium against opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Orioles will beat the Yankees 

The Yankees have lost five of their last six games as favorites against the Orioles following a home win.
The underdogs have won four of the Orioles’ last six games.
The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six night games against the Orioles following a home win.
The Orioles have covered the run line in 11 of their last 13 road games against American League opponents after playing the previous day.

Total Runs Facts

Each of the last eight games between the Orioles and Yankees have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Nine of the Orioles’ last 10 night games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Orioles’ last seven night games against American League opponents.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Yankees’ last six night games against AL East opponents.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

Aaron Judge has hit a home run in five of the Yankees’ last seven games against the Orioles at Yankee Stadium.
Jazz Chisholm has recorded at least one hit in each of the Yankees’ last eight games as favorites against the Orioles.
Amed Rosario has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances in night games against AL East teams that held a losing record.
Aaron Judge ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.683) this season.

Baltimore Orioles Player Prop Facts

Trevor Rogers has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last seven appearances with the Orioles as underdogs.
Gary Sanchez has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances with the Orioles as underdogs against AL opponents.
Dylan Carlson has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
Ryan Mountcastle has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances at Yankee Stadium.
Trevor Rogers has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances against AL East opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

The Yankees rank 1st in the league for RBIs this season (803).
The Yankees rank 1st in the league for slugging percentage this season (.454).
The Orioles rank 27th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.259).
The Orioles rank 27th in the league for home runs allowed this season (209).

Orioles vs Yankees Prediction 

New York comes into this matchup as one of the hottest teams in the MLB over the last two weeks, as they battle Toronto for the AL East crown. The Yankees are 47-31 at home this year, while the Orioles are 36-42 on the road. Baltimore has allowed 5+ runs in four of their last five games, but they are starting Rogers, who has allowed a total of four earned runs in his last five starts. New York is going with Warren, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five. Take the under in this contest.