New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction 8/16/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The New York Yankees and the Toronto Blue Jays meet Sunday in MLB action from Rogers Centre. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The New York Yankees will send out Ryan Weathers for the start here and Weathers is 5-7 with a 3.69 ERA and 136 strikeouts this season. Dylan Cease will start for the Blue Jays and is 7-5 with a 2.40 ERA and 191 strikeouts this season. 

New York Yankees Recap

The New York Yankees come into this game looking to bounce back from their 4-1 loss to Toronto last time out to sit at 68-55 this season. After this series, the Yankees will head on the road for a series against the Baltimore Orioles.

Yankees Lose 3 Straight

Entering Saturday, Ben Rice has 110 hits with 20 doubles, 32 home runs and 76 RBIs and Aaron Judge has 53 hits with 10 doubles, 17 home runs and 38 RBIs. Cody Bellinger also has 97 hits with 21 doubles, 3 triples, 11 home runs and 53 RBIs. Jazz Chisholm Jr. also has 86 hits with 14 doubles, 17 home runs and 48 RBIs as well on the year.

Toronto Blue Jays Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays come into this game looking to build on their win over New York last time out to improve to 61-64 on the year. After this series, the Blue Jays will head on the road for a series against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Blue Jays Win 7 Of Last 9

Going into Saturday, Andres Gimenez has 88 hits with 19 doubles, a triple, 8 home runs and 48 RBIs while Ernie Clement has 130 hits with 28 doubles, 9 home runs and 42 RBIs. Kazuma Okamoto has 99 hits with 16 doubles, 24 home runs, 71 RBIs and a team-high 150 strikeouts while George Springer also has 14 doubles, 12 homers and 37 RBIs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has 113 hits with 19 doubles, 7 home runs and 46 RBIs as well. Jesus Sanchez also has 63 hits with 15 doubles, 8 home runs and 32 RBIs.

New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays Betting Trends: August 16, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Dylan Cease      Record this season: 7-5      ERA: 2.40
• Home Record: 1-4
• Last 5 against Yankees: 1-2

Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win

• The Yankees have lost each of their last eight day games against teams that held a losing record.
• The home team has won six of the Blue Jays’ last seven games.
• The Yankees have failed to cover the run line each of their last eight day games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Blue Jays have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games.
• The Yankees have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Blue Jays have won the first inning in three of their last four games as favorites against the Yankees.
• The Yankees have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight day games against opponents that held a losing record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Ryan Weathers      Record this season: 5-7      ERA: 3.69
• Road Record: 2-2
• Last 5 against Blue Jays: 1-1

Why the New York Yankees will win

• The Blue Jays have lost 10 of their last 12 games as home favorites against American League opponents.
• The underdogs have won each of the Yankees’ last three games.
• The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in 11 of their last 12 games as home favorites against American League opponents.
• The Yankees have covered the run line in eight of their last nine games as road underdogs against the Blue Jays following a loss.
• The Blue Jays have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight Sunday games.
• The Blue Jays have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five Sunday games as home favorites.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Blue Jays’ last six day games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Eight of the Yankees’ last nine day games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Yankees’ last nine day games.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in 10 of the Blue Jays’ last 11 games against American League opponents.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

• Alejandro Kirk has hit at least one home run in four of his last seven appearances with the Blue Jays as home favorites against AL East opponents.
• Dylan Cease has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances in day games against AL teams that held a winning record.
• Dylan Cease has recorded 10+ strikeouts in each of his last four appearances in day games.
• Alejandro Kirk has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 home appearances against AL East opponents.
• Dylan Cease ranks 2nd in the league for total Strikeouts (191) this season.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

• Spencer Jones has hit a home run in each of the Yankees’ last two games as road underdogs.
• Heliot Ramos has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances with his team as an underdog against AL opponents.
• Jazz Chisholm ranks 4th in the league in Steals (31) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Blue Jays rank 30th in the league for triples this season (7).
• The Blue Jays rank 30th in the league for RBIs this season (467).
• The Yankees rank 1st in the league for ERA this season (3.28).
• The Yankees rank 29th in the league for hits this season (934).

New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

I’m on the under in this one. Toronto’s been hot, but they’ve still had their fair share of issues as of late against lefties and while Weathers has struggled in two starts against Toronto this year, I think he could ahve a decent outing in this one. On the other side, Cease is still a front runner for the AL Cy Young and I look for him to pitch like one again today as well so I’ll rock with the under between these two teams.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: Under 6.5