New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction 10/4/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Yankees vs Blue Jays Prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, October 4th at the Rogers Centre in Game 1 of the ALDS. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Toronto Blue Jays Preview

The Toronto Blue Jays finished the regular season with a 94-68 record and were placed first in the AL East. They have a 54-27 home record, and are 86-71 in over/under. They are coming off a 13-4 home victory over the Rays, and have four consecutive wins. Under is 3-1 in their last 4 games.

The Blue Jays have a .265 batting average this season, .333 OBP and .427 Slugging percentage. Toronto’s pitching staff has a 4.19 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Bo Bichette leads the Blue Jays with 181 hits, adding a team-high 94 RBI. He is also the team’s best hitter with a .311 batting average, while George Springer adds a team-high 32 home runs.

Kevin Gausman (R) will take the mound for the Blue Jays, and he has a 10-11 record, 3.59 ERA and 1.06 WHIP.

New York Yankees Preview

The New York Yankees finished the regular season with a 96-69 record and were placed second in the AL East. The Yankees have a 44-37 road record and are 76-84 in over/under. They are coming off a 4-0 home victory over the Red Sox, and are 9-1 in their last 10 games. Under is 8-2 in their last 10 games.

The Yankees have a .251 batting average this season, .332 OBP and .455 Slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 3.91 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Aaron Judge leads the Yankees with 4 hits in the postseason, and he is the team’s best hitter, with a .364 batting average. Anthony Volpe leads the team both in RBI, with two and in home runs, with one.

Luis Gil (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Yankees, and he has a 4-1 record, 3.32 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.

New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays Betting Trends: October 4, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Kevin Gausman      Record this season: 10-11      ERA: 3.59
• Home Record: 5-5
• Last 5 against Yankees: 2-1

Why the Toronto Blue Jays will win

• The Blue Jays have won each of their last seven games following a home win.
• The Yankees have lost each of their last five road games against the Blue Jays following a win.
• The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 games against the Blue Jays following a win.
• The favorites have covered the run line in each of the Blue Jays’ last five games.
• The Blue Jays have led after 3 innings in each of their last three day games.
• The Yankees have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four playoff games as underdogs.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Luis Gil      Record this season: 4-1      ERA: 3.32
• Road Record: 2-1
• Last 5 against Blue Jays: 1-1

Why the New York Yankees will win

• The underdogs have won each of the Yankees’ last seven games at Rogers Centre.
• The Blue Jays have lost each of their last seven playoff games.
• The Yankees have covered the run line in each of their last 11 games as road underdogs against AL East opponents following a home win.
• The Blue Jays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven playoff games.
• The Yankees have won the first inning in four of their last five day games.
• The Yankees have led after 3 innings in seven of their last eight day games.
• The Yankees have led after 5 innings in eight of their last nine games.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Yankees’ last seven day games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Seven of the Blue Jays’ last eight games as favorites against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in eight of the Yankees’ last nine games as road underdogs against AL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Blue Jays’ last five day games.

Toronto Blue Jays Player Prop Facts

• Alejandro Kirk has hit at least one home run in each of the Blue Jays’ last two games.
• Kevin Gausman has recorded seven or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances in day games.
• Bo Bichette has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 21 appearances with the Blue Jays as home favorites against AL opponents.
• Bo Bichette has recorded a Double in each of his last five appearances against AL opponents that held a winning record.
• George Springer ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.399) this season.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

• Anthony Volpe has recorded a Double in four of his last five appearances against the Blue Jays after not playing the previous day.
• Giancarlo Stanton has hit a home run in four of the Yankees’ last five road playoff games.
• Cody Bellinger has recorded at least one hit in each of the Yankees’ last eight games.
• Aaron Judge ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.331) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Blue Jays rank 1st in the league for hits this season (1461).
• The Blue Jays rank 1st in the league for batting average this season (.265).
• The Yankees rank 1st in the league for runs scored this season (849).
• The Yankees rank 1st in the league for home runs this season (274).

Yankees vs Blue Jays Prediction

The Blue Jays are 7-3 in their last 10 meetings against the Yankees, and are 6-1 in their last 7 meetings in Toronto. Under is 4-1-1 in their last 6 meetings.

In this Yankees vs Blue Jays Prediction, the Blue Jays are coming as -120 home favorites. Both pitchers are not coming into this matchup in good form, as Gausman has back-to-back games with 4 earned runs, while Gil for the Yankees has 4+ earned runs in three of his last four starts. But Gausman has been very effective against the Yankees with season, having just one earned runs in his last two starts against them, while Gil has been weaker on the road for the Yankees, with a 4.38 road ERA. The Jays also have a better bullpen and more rested arms, and I like them to get the job done at home in Game 1 of this series.