New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction 4/11/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The New York Yankees and the Tampa Bay Rays meet Saturday in MLB action from Tropicana Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The New York Yankees will send out Max Fried for the start here and Fried is 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 14 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Rays, Fried is 5-0 with a 0.77 ERA and 31 strikeouts. Nick Martinez will start here for the Rays and is 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 7 strikeouts this season. In his last five starts against the Yankees, Martinez is 2-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 15 strikeouts.

New York Yankees Recap

The New York Yankees come into this game looking to bounce back from a 5-3 loss at the hands of the Rays in Friday’s series opener to sit at 8-5 this season. After this series, the Yankees will head home for a game against the Angels.

Yankees Lose 3 In A Row

Giancarlo Stanton has 15 hits with 2 doubles, a home run and 7 RBIs while Ben Rice has 13 hits with 4 doubles, 4 home runs and 12 RBIs and Aaron Judge has 11 hits with a double, 3 home runs and 7 RBIs. Cody Bellinger also has 10 hits with a double, a triple, a home run and 5 RBIs.

Tampa Bay Rays Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays come into this game looking to build on their win over the Yankees to sit at 6-7 this season. After this series, the Rays will head on the road for a set against the White Sox.

Rays Snap Two-Game Slide

Yandy Diaz leads the Rays with 19 hits with 3 home runs and 12 RBIs while Chandler Simpson has 19 hits with a triple. Nick Fortes has 12 hits with 3 doubles, a home run and 6 RBIs and Jonathan Aranda has 13 hits with 3 doubles, 3 homers and 12 RBIs.

New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays Betting Trends: April 11, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Nick Martinez      Record this season: 0-0      ERA: 2.25
• Home Record: 0-0
• Last 5 against Yankees: 0-1

Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win

• The Rays have won each of their last nine Saturday games as underdogs against the Yankees.
• The Yankees have lost seven of their last eight games as road favorites against AL East opponents following a loss.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in 14 of the Rays’ last 15 games at Tropicana Field.
• The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as road favorites against AL East opponents following a loss.
• The Rays have led after 5 innings in each of their last four games as home underdogs.
• The Rays have won the first inning in six of their last eight games as home underdogs.
• The Rays have led after 3 innings in each of their last nine games as home underdogs.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Max Fried      Record this season: 2-0      ERA: 1.35
• Road Record: 2-0
• Last 5 against Rays: 5-0

Why the New York Yankees will win

• The Rays have lost each of their last six night games against the Yankees following a win.
• The Yankees have won seven of their last eight night games following a loss.
• The Yankees have covered the run line in each of their last nine Saturday games as favorites.
• The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six night games against the Yankees following a win.
• The Yankees have won the first inning in three of their last four games against the Rays.
• The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight Saturday night games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight Saturday night games against American League opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Yankees’ last five games as road favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Rays’ last six home games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 11 of the Rays’ last 12 night games against AL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the Yankees’ last six games at Tropicana Field.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

• Yandy Diaz has hit a home run in three of the Rays’ last four games as underdogs.
• Taylor Walls has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Yandy Diaz ranks T4th in the league in Hits (19) this season.

New York Yankees Player Prop Facts

• Aaron Judge has hit a home run in each of the Yankees’ last five Saturday games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Max Fried has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last 12 appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
• Max Fried has recorded a win in each of his last six road appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Giancarlo Stanton has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances against the Rays.
• Ben Rice ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.763) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Rays rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts against this season (91).
• The Rays rank 27th in the league for ERA this season (4.80).
• The Yankees rank 30th in the league for hits this season (83).
• The Yankees rank 1st in the league for home runs allowed this season (3).

New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

I’m on the Yankees here. Max Fried is the far more trustworthy option, and I don’t think this run of form is sustainable for a full workload for Nick Martinez. I think the Yankees bats break through here and find a way to get the job done in this one so give me the Yankees.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: NY Yankees -200