| MATCHUP | New York Yankees | Tampa Bay Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 93-68 | 98-64 |
| Spread | -1.5 142 | +1.5 -172 |
| Moneyline | -131 | +109 |
| Total | Over 6.5 (-113) | Under 6.5 (-107) |
| Where | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida | |
| When | Monday, October 5, 2026 | |
| Time | 08:00 PM EDT | |
| TV | TBS | |
Tampa Bay Rays Preview
The Tampa Bay Rays have a 98-64 record this season and finished in the 1st place of the AL East. They have a 55-26 home record and are coming off a 1-0 home win against the Yankees.
The Tampa Bay Rays have a .172 batting average this postseason, .250 OBP and .345 Slugging percentage. Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has a 0.00 ERA and 0.33 WHIP. Liam Hicks is the team’s best hitter with a .333 batting average. Jonathan Aranda leads the team in RBI with one, adding a team-high one home run.
Freddy Peralta (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Rays, and he has a 10-11 record, 4.42 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in the regular season.
New York Yankees Preview
The New York Yankees have a 93-68 record this season and finished in the 2nd place of the AL East. They have a 47-34 away record and are coming off a 0-1 road loss against the Rays.
The New York Yankees have a .284 batting average this postseason, .346 OBP and .432 Slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 1.04 ERA and 0.69 WHIP. Austin Wells is the team’s best hitter with a .444 batting average. Ben Rice leads the team in RBI with 6, adding a team-high 2 home runs.
Cam Schlittler (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Yankees, and he has a 1-0 record, 0.00 ERA and 0.47 WHIP in the playoffs.
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays Betting Trends: October 5, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Freddy Peralta Record this season: 10-11 ERA: 4.42
- Home Record: 5-5
- Last 5 against Yankees: 0-1
Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win
- The Rays have won seven of their last eight games as home underdogs against AL East opponents.
- The Yankees have lost each of their last five road playoff games.
- The Rays have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as home underdogs against AL East opponents.
- The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six road playoff games after not playing the previous day.
- The Yankees have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four road playoff games.
- The Yankees have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six road playoff games.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Cam Schlittler Record this season (inc. playoffs): 15-6 ERA: 1.89
- Road Record: 8-2
- Last 5 against Rays: 1-2
Why the New York Yankees will win
- The Yankees have won each of their last nine games against AL opponents following a loss.
- The Rays have lost each of their last six playoff games following a win.
- The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine night games following a home win.
- The Yankees have covered the run line in each of their last six games as favorites following a loss.
- The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four playoff games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
- The Yankees have led after 5 innings in four of their last five games as road favorites against AL opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Twelve of the Yankees’ last 13 games as favorites against AL opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Each of the Rays’ last five games as home underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Yankees’ last six games.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in eight of the last nine night games between the Yankees and Rays.
Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts
- Jonathan Aranda has hit at least one home run in three of his last four home appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
- Freddy Peralta has recorded a win in five of his last six appearances.
- Freddy Peralta has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
- Jonathan Aranda has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 home appearances after not playing the previous day.
- Chandler Simpson ranks 2nd in the league in Steals (46) this season.
New York Yankees Player Prop Facts
- Cam Schlittler has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances against AL East opponents.
- Cam Schlittler has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last six road appearances against AL opponents.
- George Lombard Jr. has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances with the Yankees as favorites against AL opponents.
- Heliot Ramos has hit a home run in each of his last two road appearances.
- Cam Schlittler ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for Earned Run Average (1.95) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Rays rank 1st in the league for strikeouts against this season (1145).
- The Rays rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (409).
- The Yankees rank 1st in the league for ERA this season (3.23).
- The Yankees rank 29th in the league for hits this season (1250).
Yankees vs Rays Prediction
The Yankees are 4-2 in their last 6 meetings against the Rays but are 1-3 in their last four visits in Tampa.
In this Yankees vs Rays Prediction, the Yankees are coming as -130 road favorites. I like the pitching in this matchup, as Schlitter has been a top-3 pitcher in baseball this season and has been even better on the road with a 1.16 ERA, while Peralta has been in excellent form, having given up one run or less in each of his last six starts and has been better at home with a 3.53 ERA. The opening game of this series had just one total run scored and I don’t see how this will be a high-scoring affair with those two pitchers. Take the under 6.5 runs in this one.