New York Yankees vs San Diego Padres Prediction 9/4/2026 Today’s MLB Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Aug 28, 2026; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees designated hitter Ben Rice (22) hits a single against the Boston Red Sox during the seventh inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tom Horak-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
New York Yankees
San Diego Padres
Team Records
80-60
73-67
Spread
-1.5 131
+1.5 -158
Moneyline
-130
+108
Total
Over 7.5 (-102)
Under 7.5 (-118)
Where
Petco Park, San Diego, California
When
Friday, September 4, 2026
Time
09:40 PM EDT
TV
MLB.TV
The New York Yankees and the San Diego Padres meet Friday in MLB action from Petco Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a New York Yankees vs. San Diego Padres prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The New York Yankees will send out Max Fried for the start here and Fried is 4-4 with a 2.80 ERA and 83 strikeouts this season. Walker Buehler will start for San Diego and is 8-6 with a 4.66 ERA and 111 strikeouts this season.
New York Yankees Recap
The New York Yankees come into this game looking to add on to their 6-3 win over the Angels last time out to improve to 80-60 this season. After this series, the Yankees wil take on the Colorado Rockies in a matchup at home.
Yankees Win 5 Of Last 7
Ben Rice has 127 hits with 22 doubles, 35 home runs and 87 RBIs and Aaron Judge has 53 hits with 10 doubles, 17 home runs and 38 RBIs. Cody Bellinger also has 112 hits with 22 doubles, 3 triples, 12 home runs and 60 RBIs. Jazz Chisholm Jr. also has 104 hits with 16 doubles, 19 home runs and 55 RBIs as well on the year. Trent Grisham has 88 hits with 19 doubles, 18 home runs and 59 RBIs while Jose Caballero has 89 hits with 13 home runs and 47 RBIs.
San Diego Padres Recap
The San Diego Padres come into this game looking to rebound from a 7-3 loss at the hands of the Cincinnati Reds last time out to sit at 73-67 this season. After this series, the Padres will take on the Washington Nationals in a series at home.
Padres Lose 7 Of Last 9
Jackson Merrill has 128 hits with 22 doubles, 22 home runs and 70 RBIs while Gavin Sheets has 75 hits with 15 doubles, 16 home runs and 46 RBIs as well on the year. Fernando Tatis Jr. has 154 hits with 29 doubles, 19 home runs and 70 RBIs and Xander Bogaerts has 99 hits with 14 doubles, 11 home runs and 51 RBIs. Manny Machado also has 111 hits with 21 doubles, 24 home runs and 75 RBIs as well on the year.
New York Yankees @ San Diego Padres Betting Trends: September 4, 2026
Probable Starting Pitcher: Walker Buehler Record this season: 8-6 ERA: 4.66
Home Record: 4-3
Last 5 against Yankees: 1-1
Why the San Diego Padres will win
The Padres have won each of their last seven night games following a road loss.
The Yankees have lost four of their last five games as favorites following a win.
The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last eight games as underdogs following a loss.
The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight night games against NL West opponents following a win.
The Padres have led after 5 innings in seven of their last nine home games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
The Yankees have lost the first inning in three of their last four night games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
The Padres have led after 3 innings in each of their last four games as home underdogs against AL opponents.
Probable Starting Pitcher: Max Fried Record this season: 4-4 ERA: 2.80
Road Record: 4-2
Last 5 against Padres: 1-2
Why the New York Yankees will win
The Padres have lost each of their last eight Friday home games against AL East opponents.
The Yankees have won seven of their last eight night games after going to extra innings.
The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine night games against AL East opponents.
The Yankees have covered the run line in each of their last seven games after going to extra innings.
The Padres have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight night games against AL opponents.
The Yankees have led after 5 innings in each of their last four night games against NL West opponents.
Total Runs Facts
Ten of the Yankees’ last 11 road games after going to extra innings have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Seven of the Padres’ last eight games as underdogs against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
There has been no run scored during the first inning in eight of the Padres’ last nine games as home underdogs.
There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Yankees’ last five games against NL opponents.
San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts
Jackson Merrill has hit a home run in four of the Padres’ last five home games against AL opponents.
Walker Buehler has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
Walker Buehler has recorded five or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances with the Padres as underdogs against AL opponents.
Jackson Merrill has recorded at least one hit in each of the Padres’ last eight home games against opponents that held a winning record.
Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks T6th in the league in Steals (31) this season.
New York Yankees Player Prop Facts
Spencer Jones has hit a home run in three of the Yankees’ last four road games.
Max Fried has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances with the Yankees as road favorites against NL opponents.
Max Fried has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last four road appearances against NL opponents that held a winning record.
Heliot Ramos has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 appearances with his team as a road favorite against NL opponents.
Jazz Chisholm ranks 2nd in the league in Steals (40) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
The Padres rank 3rd in the league for steals this season (138).
The Padres rank 26th in the league for hits this season (1096).
The Yankees rank 1st in the league for ERA this season (3.24).
The Yankees rank 1st in the league for runs allowed this season (521).
New York Yankees vs. San Diego Padres Prediction
I’m on the Yankees in this one. Walker Buehler has been a profitable option for the Padres this season, but the Padres are back to having some issues against left-handed pitching and Fried was solid in his return from injury. On the flipside, the Yankees have found their bats again and I look for the bats to carry over and pick up another much needed win here. Give me the Yankees.
