New York (60-49) vs Miami (52-55)
August 1, 2025 at 07:10 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Miami +1.5 — Over/Under: +8
In this article, we will formulate a Yankees vs Marlins prediction for this MLB game on Friday, August 1, at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
New York Yankees Betting Preview
The New York Yankees (60-49, 26-27 Away) responded to series losses against the Toronto Blue Jays and Philadelphia Phillies with a win over the Tampa Bay Rays. The Yankees lost the opening game but connected three wins, including a series-clinching one on Thursday, 7-4. Ben Rice led the offense with a three-run homer, while Marcus Stroman got the win after allowing four runs on six hits with three strikeouts and no walks in 5.0 innings.
This season, the Yankees average 5.17 runs per game (3rd in the MLB) on a .252/.332/.452 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Yankees’ staff has a 3.97 ERA (17th) and 1.24 WHIP (10th). Aaron Judge leads the Yankees with a .342 batting average, 37 home runs, and 85 RBI this season.
Carlos Rodon will take the mound for the Yankees on Friday. The 32-year-old left-hander has an 11-7 record in 22 starts this year with a 3.18 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 130.0 innings.
Miami Marlins Betting Preview
The Miami Marlins (52-55, 24-29 Home) are playing their best baseball of the season, as they won all four series to open the second half. Miami defeated the Kansas City Royals, San Diego Padres, Milwaukee Brewers, and St. Louis Cardinals. Following a 7-1 loss in Game 1 against the Cards, the Marlins secured 5-0 and 2-0 victories to clinch the series. Jesus Sanchez was a hero in the latest one with a two-run homer, while Cal Quantrill got the win after allowing no runs on three hits with three strikeouts and two walks across 5.0 innings of work.
This year, the Marlins average 4.23 runs per game (20th in the MLB) on a .252/.314/.393 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Marlins’ staff has a 4.36 ERA (24th) and 1.30 WHIP (20th). Kyle Stowers leads the Marlins with a .298 batting average, 23 home runs, and 63 RBI this season.
The projected starting pitcher for the Marlins is Janson Junk, who is 5-2 in seven starts this season, with a 3.28 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 60.1 innings.
Total Runs Facts
- Seven of the Yankees’ last eight games as favorites against the Marlins have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Nine of the Marlins’ last 11 home games against AL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Marlins’ last 10 night games against AL East opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Yankees’ last four games as road favorites.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Marlins rank 6th in the league for strikeouts against this season (841).
- The Marlins rank T7th in the league for triples this season (18).
- The Yankees rank 1st in the league for walks this season (414).
- The Yankees rank 2nd in the league for on-base percentage this season (.332).
Yankees vs Marlins Prediction
The Yankees won six of the previous ten H2H encounters, including two of the last three. Although I am leaning toward the Yankees, I cannot ignore Miami’s solid form in the second half of the season, so I will stay away from betting on the winner. I am going with Over instead. Carlos Rodon allowed multiple runs in four of his previous six starts, and I think the hosts will score at least two off of him early on. Janson Junk, on the other hand, also surrendered multiple runs in four of his last six starts and allowed seven in the past two, so the Yankees will have a chance to do damage in the opening few innings. The run total is not high (7.5), which is another reason I am backing Over.