Cleveland Guardians (95-73) vs New York Yankees (99-69)
Game Info: Friday, October 18, 2024 at 8:08 pm (Progressive Field)
The Line: Betting Odds: Cleveland Guardians +105 / New York Yankees -125 — Over/Under:
The New York Yankees and the Cleveland Guardians meet Friday in MLB playoffs action from Progressive Field. This will be Game 4 in a best-of-seven ALCS series. Here’s a New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Yankees vs Guardians pick. We will examine:
The Cleveland Guardians recent form and player performance
The New York Yankees recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Cleveland Guardians
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the New York Yankees
Recent betting trends in games played between Yankees and Guardians
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Yankees vs Guardians game
New York Yankees Betting Preview
The Yankees got off to a good start in Game 1 of this set, posting a 5-2 win. In the Tuesday matchup, New York was up 3-0 after just two innings and ended up with another victory 6-3. In Game 3 Thursday, the Yankees came back from a 3-1 deficit but ultimately ended up losing 7-5 in 10 innings. Starter Clarke Schmidt posted 4.2 innings with two earned runs on five hits and two walks.
In the starter slot for Game 4 will be New York’s Luis Gil. This year Gil went 15-7 with a 3.50 ERA in 29 starts. Over his career Gil is 16-8 with a 3.55 ERA in 36 starts. This will be his first postseason appearance.
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview
Over on the Guardians’ side, they showed some life in the fifth inning Tuesday with a couple of runs. Cleveland had a couple of costly errors however, and ended up surrendering 11 hits in the Game 2 loss. On Thursday the Guardians bagged a handful of clutch hits down the stretch, scoring four runs across the final two innings. Matthew Boyd lasted 5.0 frames in the start, posting one earned on two hits and three walks.
For the starting pitcher job Friday, Cleveland is sending out Gavin Williams. In 2024 Williams went 3-10 with a 4.86 ERA over 16 starts. Williams has a career record of 6-15 with a 4.04 ERA in 32 starts.
Total Runs Facts
- Ten of the Guardians’ last 12 home games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Five of the Yankees’ last six playoff games after going to extra innings have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Guardians’ last three home games.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Yankees’ last five Friday night games.
Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts
- Brayan Rocchio has recorded at least one Single in each of the Guardians’ last six games against AL opponents that held a winning record.
- Jose Ramirez has hit a home run in three of the Guardians’ last five night games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Josh Naylor has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Guardians’ last five home playoff games against the Yankees.
- Myles Straw has scored at least one run in five of his last six appearances against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
- Will Brennan has recorded a Double in three of his last four home appearances against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
- Brayan Rocchio has recorded at least one hit in each of the Guardians’ last eight games against AL opponents.
- Brayan Rocchio has recorded at least one total base in each of the Guardians’ last eight games against opponents that held a winning record.
New York Yankees Player Prop Facts
- Juan Soto has recorded a Single in each of his last six appearances after playing the previous day.
- Aaron Judge has hit a home run in five of his last six appearances after playing the previous day.
- Giancarlo Stanton has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last seven road appearances against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
- Jazz Chisholm has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances after playing the previous day.
- Jose Trevino has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine road appearances against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
- Juan Soto has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 11 playoff appearances after playing the previous day.
- Aaron Judge has scored at least one run in each of his last six appearances after playing the previous day.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Cleveland Guardians rank 3rd in the league for opponent batting average this season (.230).
- The Cleveland Guardians rank 3rd in the league for runs allowed this season (621).
- The New York Yankees rank 3rd in the league for runs scored this season (815).
- The New York Yankees rank 3rd in the league for RBI’s this season (782).
New York Yankees vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction
I might lean toward the Guardians in this one. Gil’s role (or lack thereof) so far in this postseason has been a hot topic of conversation. It remains to be seen how the long layoff will affect Gil’s presence on the mound, but it’s worth noting that he did pitch a simulated game during the Yankees’ workouts prior to the ALCS. It’s also worth noting that Gil finished off the regular season on a rough run, giving up 10 earned runs over 11.0 combined innings between a pair of late-September starts. As for Williams, he posted 10.2 innings with three earned runs over his final two regular-season outings and will be making his playoff debut here.
As for Cleveland, on Thursday they got an epic walk-off home run from David Fry to close out one of the team’s biggest wins ever. The Guardians will have new life heading into Game 4 after avoiding disaster on Thursday. Cleveland does have a legitimate concern with an overworked bullpen, but they’ve still got a great shot at tying this thing up—and momentum is on their side.