Pittsburgh Pirates (41-44) vs New York Mets (42-42)
Game Info: Friday, July 5, 2024 at 6:40 pm (PNC Park)
The Line: Betting Odds: Pittsburgh Pirates -111 / New York Mets -106 — Over/Under: 7.5
The New York Mets and the Pittsburgh Pirates meet Friday in MLB action from PNC Park. Here’s a New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates prediction. This will be the first installment in a four-game series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for the game. We will examine:
The New York Mets recent form and player performance
The Pittsburgh Pirates recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the New York Mets
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Pittsburgh Pirates
Recent betting trends in games played between the Mets and Pirates
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Mets vs Pirates game
New York Mets Betting Preview
This week the Mets took on the Washington Nationals. New York won 9-7 and 7-2 in the first pair before a game three loss 7-5. On Thursday the Mets took a tough loss 1-0. Jose Quintana went 7.0 innings as starter with no earned, four hits and three walks.
In the starter role for the Friday opener the Mets are sending out Luis Severino. This year Severino is 5-2 with a 3.42 ERA in 16 starts. Over his career Severino is 59-39 with a 3.74 ERA in 157 games (141 starts).
Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview
Over on the Pirates’ side, they’re coming off a series versus the St. Louis Cardinals. Pittsburgh split the first two games 7-4 (loss) and 5-4 (win). In the rubber match the Pirates took a one-run loss as well, theirs 3-2 in 10 innings. Martin Perez lasted 7.1 clean frames as starter with six hits and a walk.
As starting pitcher for Friday the Pirates are going with Paul Skenes. This year Skenes is 4-0 with a 2.06 ERA in the first nine starts of his career. He’s got 70 Ks in 52.1 innings over that time.
Mets vs Pirates Pick Injury Notes
Mets SP Kodai Senga (shoulder) is expected to make another rehab start Tuesday.
Pirates SP Jared Jones hit the IL this week with a strained right lat.
Total Runs Facts
- Five of the Mets’ last six games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Four of the Pirates’ last five games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last six night games against National League opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Pirates’ last five home games against National League opponents.
Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Facts
- Bryan Reynolds has hit a home run in three of the Pirates’ last four games at PNC Park against opponents that held a losing record.
- Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one RBI in eight of the Pirates’ last nine home games against opponents that held a losing record.
- Bryan Reynolds has scored a run in seven of the Pirates’ last eight games at PNC Park against opponents that held a losing record.
- Bryan Reynolds has recorded at least one Single in eight of the Pirates’ last nine games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
- Andrew McCutchen has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 13 appearances with the Pirates as home favorites against the Mets.
- Andrew McCutchen has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 16 appearances with the Pirates as favorites against the Mets.
- Connor Joe has recorded at least one Double in three of his last four appearances with the Pirates as favorites against NL East opponents.
New York Mets Player Prop Facts
- Brandon Nimmo has hit a home run in each of the Mets’ last four games as road underdogs against NL Central opponents.
- J.D. Martinez has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances in night games against NL teams that held a losing record.
- Luis Severino has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
- J.D. Martinez has recorded at least one RBI in seven of the Mets’ last eight games as underdogs.
- Brandon Nimmo has scored at least one run in each of the Mets’ last seven games as underdogs.
- Francisco Lindor has recorded three or more total bases in each of the Mets’ last six games as underdogs.
- Luis Severino has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances with his team as an underdog against NL opponents.
- J.D. Martinez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances against NL opponents.
- Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one Single in each of his last eight road appearances against the Pirates.
New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction
I might take a stab on the Mets. Probably not touching it, though. Severino has been quite choppy over his last three starts. He does have a win versus the Cubs with 6.0 clean frames on June 23 in that time. That said, the other pair resulted in 13.1 innings with 10 earned runs on 16 hits and two walks. As for Skenes, he’s rolling along nicely these days with three earned over his last 19.0 innings. It may be tough for the New York bats to crack Skenes if he’s dealing.
On Thursday the Mets were flummoxed by the Nationals pitching, coming up with just one hit (by Jeff McNeil). Outside of a DJ Stewart walk, that’s all New York could come up with offensively. The Mets have to get better at the plate Friday.