Philadelphia Phillies (95-67) vs New York Mets (91-74)
Game Info: Sunday, October 6, 2024 at 4:08 pm (Citizens Bank Park)
The Line: Betting Odds: Philadelphia Phillies -155 / New York Mets +142 — Over/Under: 7.5
The New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies meet Sunday in MLB playoffs action from Citizens Bank Park. This will be the second installment in a best-of-five postseason series. Here’s a New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Mets vs Phillies pick. We will examine:
The New York Mets recent form and player performance
The Philadelphia Phillies recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the New York Mets
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Philadelphia Phillies
Recent betting trends in games played between Mets and Phillies
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Mets vs Phillies game
New York Mets Betting Preview
The Mets were able to eke into the playoffs with a Wild Card bid this year, posting an 89-73 overall record. New York moved on with victories 8-4 Tuesday and 4-2 Thursday over the Milwaukee Brewers in that Wild Card set. In Saturday’s Division Round opener versus Philly, the Mets posted five runs in the eighth inning on the way to a 6-2 victory. David Peterson did most of the pitching with 3.0 clean frames, one hit and three walks.
In the starter slot for Sunday will be New York’s Luis Severino. This year Severino went 11-7 with a 3.91 ERA in 31 starts. In his postseason career Severino is 2-4 with a 5.07 ERA in 12 games (11 starts).
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
Over on the Philadelphia side, they won the National League East this year with a 95-67 overall record, earning a bye into the Division Series. On Saturday Philly could only muster five team hits, two of which came from Kyle Schwarber (solo homer). Starter Zack Wheeler finished with 7.0 innings, one hit, four walks and nine Ks in a great outing.
As starting pitcher for game two the Phillies will go with Christopher Sanchez. This season Sanchez logged a 3.32 ERA with an 11-9 record in 31 starts. Sanchez has just one postseason start to his credit, posting 2.1 innings and one K.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Phillies’ last six games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Eleven of the Mets’ last 14 playoff games have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last three home games.
Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts
- J.T. Realmuto has scored a run in six of his last seven appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
- Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one Single in six of the Phillies’ last seven games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
- Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one total base in each of the Phillies’ last eight games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
- Kyle Schwarber has recorded an RBI in four of his five previous playoff appearances against the Mets.
- Nick Castellanos has recorded at least one hit in each of the Phillies’ last eight games against opponents that held a winning record.
- Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in three of the Phillies’ last four home games against opponents that held a winning record.
New York Mets Player Prop Facts
- Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one total base in each of the Mets’ last 13 day games.
- Harrison Bader has hit a home run in three of his last four road playoff appearances after playing the previous day.
- Harrison Bader has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five playoff appearances after playing the previous day.
- Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last 13 day games.
- Francisco Lindor has scored at least one run in each of his last four appearances in day games against teams that held a winning record.
- Jose Iglesias has recorded at least one Single in each of the Mets’ last nine day games against opponents that held a winning record.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Philadelphia Phillies rank 4th in the league for doubles this season (285).
- The Philadelphia Phillies are one of only 4 teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.
- The New York Mets rank 3rd in the league for hits allowed this season (1232).
- The New York Mets rank 5th in the league for strikeouts this season (1455).
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
I’m going to stick with the Mets. Severino had a decent start in his first postseason appearance this year, notching 6.0 innings with three earned on eight hits and two walks. New York would go on to win that game, 8-4 over the Brewers on October 1. Prior to that however, Severino was just okay with 10 earned over a span of 16.0 innings heading into the playoffs. He’ll need a quality outing here to get New York started on the right foot.
In Saturday’s opener, the Mets were relatively quiet aside from one huge inning and it did the job. Brandon Nimmo had two of the team’s six RBI, and the pitching staff did the rest. Five different pitchers got work in Game 1, so it’d be nice to see Severino get a lengthy outing Sunday.