New York Mets vs New York Yankees Prediction 9/11/2026 Today’s MLB Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Sep 7, 2026; Miami, Florida, USA; New York Mets left fielder Juan Soto (22) celebrates with right fielder Carson Benge (3) after scoring against the Miami Marlins during the first inning at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
New York Mets
New York Yankees
Team Records
68-78
84-62
Spread
+1.5 -186
-1.5 153
Moneyline
+118
-142
Total
Over 8 (-115)
Under 8 (-105)
Where
Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York
When
Friday, September 11, 2026
Time
07:05 PM EDT
TV
ESPN Unlmtd
The New York Mets and the New York Yankees meet Friday in MLB action from Yankee Stadium. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a New York Mets vs. New York Yankees prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The New York Mets will send out Nolan McLean for the start here and McLean is 11-8 with a 3.06 ERA and 179 strikeouts this season. Carlos Rodon will start for the Yankees and is 5-3 with a 3.09 ERA and 70 strikeouts this season.
New York Mets Recap
The New York Mets come into this game looking to add on to their 15-14 win over the Marlins last time out to sit at 68-78 this season. After this series, the Mets will head home for a game against the Baltimore Orioles.
Mets Win 4 Straight
Juan Soto has 92 hits with 9 doubles, 24 home runs and 59 RBIs. Brett Baty has 88 hits with 20 doubles, a triple, 10 home runs and 50 RBIs. Marcus Semien also has 97 hits with 13 doubles, 14 home runs and 45 RBIs as well this season. Bo Bichette also has 151 hits with 24 doubles, 16 home runs and 73 RBIs as well this season. Francisco Alvarez has also added 77 hits with 12 doubles and 15 home runs this season. Carson Benge also has 144 hits with 19 doubles, 3 triples, 16 home runs and 55 RBIs.
New York Yankees Recap
The New York Yankees come into this game looking to add on to their 10-2 win over the Rockies last time out to sit at 84-62 this season. After this series, the Yankees will head on the road for a series against the Minnesota Twins.
Yankees Win 3 Straight
Ben Rice has 134 hits with 22 doubles, 36 home runs and 88 RBIs and Aaron Judge has 55 hits with 10 doubles, 17 home runs and 38 RBIs. Cody Bellinger also has 118 hits with 25 doubles, 3 triples, 13 home runs and 64 RBIs. Jazz Chisholm Jr. also has 107 hits with 16 doubles, 19 home runs and 55 RBIs as well on the year. Trent Grisham has 88 hits with 19 doubles, 18 home runs and 59 RBIs while Jose Caballero has 89 hits with 13 home runs and 47 RBIs.
New York Mets @ New York Yankees Betting Trends: September 11, 2026
Probable Starting Pitcher: Carlos Rodon Record this season: 5-3 ERA: 3.09
Home Record: 1-2
Last 5 against Mets: 3-2
Why the New York Yankees will win
The Yankees have won each of their last five home games.
The Mets have lost each of their last five road games against AL East opponents following a win.
The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games against AL East opponents following a win.
The Yankees have covered the run line in each of their last six games after playing the previous day.
The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six games at Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees have led after 5 innings in eight of their last nine home night games.
Probable Starting Pitcher: Nolan McLean Record this season: 11-8 ERA: 3.06
Road Record: 6-2
Last 5 against Yankees: –
Why the New York Mets will win
The Mets have won each of their last four games as underdogs.
The Yankees have lost four of their last five games as favorites against the Mets following a home win.
The Yankees have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as home favorites against the Mets following a home win.
The Mets have covered the run line in seven of their last eight road games.
The Mets have led after 3 innings in each of their last four night games.
The Mets have led after 5 innings in each of their last four road games.
The Mets have won the first inning in three of their last four road games.
Total Runs Facts
Seven of the Mets’ last eight games have gone OVER the total runs line.
Each of the Yankees’ last five games as favorites against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Yankees’ last eight Friday games.
There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in five of the Mets’ last six games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
New York Yankees Player Prop Facts
Ben Rice has hit a home run in four of his last five appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
Carlos Rodon has recorded a win in each of his last three home appearances against NL opponents.
Carlos Rodon has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
Cody Bellinger has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances with the Yankees as home favorites against NL opponents.
Luis Garcia ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.553) this season.
New York Mets Player Prop Facts
Francisco Lindor has hit a home run in four of the Mets’ last five night games.
Nolan McLean has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances.
Carson Benge has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last 14 road games against AL opponents.
Matchup/League Facts
The Yankees rank 1st in the league for ERA this season (3.20).
The Yankees rank 1st in the league for runs allowed this season (536).
The Mets rank 29th in the league for doubles this season (189).
The Mets rank 29th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.309).
New York Mets vs. New York Yankees Prediction
I’m on the Yankees in this one. I just think that the Subway Series is a highly competitive series, but the Yankees are the better team and have looked much improved with the return of Aaron Judge to the lineup. The Mets haven’t been as sharp against lefties as they’ve been in recent weeks, and I think the Yankees get the job done here to draw first blood. Give me the Yankees.
