New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction 9/26/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Mets vs Marlins Prediction for this MLB game on Friday, September 26th at the loanDepot park in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Miami Marlins Preview

The Miami Marlins have a 77-82 record this season and are sitting on the third place of the NL East. The Marlins have a 36-42 home record and are 81-73 in over/under. They are coming off a 0-1 road defeat by the Phillies, and have back-to-back losses. Over is 6-3 in their last 9 games.

The Marlins have a .251 batting average this season, .315 OBP and .394 slugging percentage. Miami’s pitching staff has a 4.64 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.  Xavier Edwards leads the Marlins with 153 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .279 batting average. He also adds a team-high 25 home runs, while Otto Lopez leads the team in RBI, with 77.

Sandy Alcantara (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins, and he has a 10-12 record, 5.48 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.

New York Mets Preview

The New York Mets have an 82-77 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL East. The Mets have a 33-45 road record and are 76-75 in over/under. They are coming off an 8-5 road win over the Cubs, and over is 9-3 in their last 12 games.

The Mets have a .250 batting average this season, .326 OBP and .429 slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 4.03 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.  Francisco Lindor leads the Mets with 169 hits, while Pete Alonso leads the team in batting average with .271. He also adds a team-high 123 RBI, while Juan Soto adds team-high 43 home runs.

Brandon Sproat (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets, and he has a 0-1 record, 3.94 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.

New York Mets @ Miami Marlins Betting Trends: September 26, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Sandy Alcantara      Record this season: 10-12      ERA: 5.48
• Home Record: 6-6
• Last 5 against Mets: 2-0

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Mets have lost six of their last seven games as road favorites against NL East opponents following a road win.
• The Marlins have won five of their last six games as underdogs against the Mets following a loss.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games against NL East opponents.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games.
• The Marlins have won the first inning in three of their last four home games.
• The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six games against opponents that held a losing record.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in five of their last six games against opponents that held a losing record.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Brandon Sproat      Record this season: 0-1      ERA: 3.94
• Road Record: 0-1
• Last 5 against Marlins: –

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Marlins have lost seven of their last eight home games following a road loss.
• The road team has won eight of the Marlins’ last 10 games.
• The road team has covered the run line in four of the Mets’ last five games.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five games as home underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in nine of their last 10 night games against NL East opponents.
• The Marlins have lost the first inning in five of their last six night games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in each of their last four road games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mets’ last nine night games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Marlins’ last six games against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in nine of the Mets’ last 10 night games.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Marlins’ last eight games as home underdogs.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Sandy Alcantara has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances in night games.
• Kyle Stowers has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances with the Marlins as home underdogs.
• Kyle Stowers has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances in night games against NL teams that held a winning record.
• Sandy Alcantara has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances.
• Kyle Stowers has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 Friday appearances.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Francisco Lindor has hit a home run in three of the Mets’ last four games.
• Pete Alonso has recorded a Double in four of the Mets’ last five games as road favorites.
• Pete Alonso has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last nine games as favorites.
• Juan Soto ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.396) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Marlins rank 4th in the league for strikeouts against this season (1230).
• The Marlins are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and batting average this season.
• The Mets rank 2nd in the league for home runs allowed this season (148).
• The Mets are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and on-base percentage this season.

Mets vs Marlins Prediction

The Marlins are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings against the Mets, but the Mets are 2-1 in their last 3 meetings in Miami. Over is 3-1 in their last 4 meetings.  

In this Mets vs Marlins Prediction, the Mets are coming as -135 road favorites. The Marlins have officially been eliminated from the playoffs, while the Mets still hold the third Wild Card spot in the NL. I don’t trust Alcantara to win a meaningless game for the Marlins. The Mets have both a better bullpen and a better offense, and I expect them to get the job done and keep hold of the third Wild Card spot for the NL.