Cincinnati (51-47) vs New York (55-43)
July 19, 2025 at 04:10 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: New York -165 — Over/Under: +9
The Cincinnati Reds and the New York Mets meet Saturday in MLB action from Citi Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The Cincinnati Reds will start Nick Martinez here, and Martinez is 7-9 with a 4.78 ERA and 76 strikeouts this season. Clay Holmes will get the start here for the Mets and is 8-4 with a 3.31 ERA and 83 strikeouts this season.
Cincinnati Reds Recap
The Cincinnati Reds come into this game looking to build on their 8-4 win over the Mets last time out to sit at 51-47 on the year. After this series, the Reds will head on the road for a series against the Washington Nationals.
Reds Win 3 Straight & 5 Of Last 6
Elly De La Cruz has 106 hits with 18 home runs, 64 RBIs, 18 doubles, and 25 stolen bases, while TJ Friedl has 97 hits with 15 doubles, 9 home runs, and 33 RBIs with 10 stolen bases. Gavin Lux has added 72 hits with 17 doubles and 37 RBIs, while Spencer Steer has 11 home runs and 39 RBIs, and Matt McLain has added 11 homers, 34 RBIs, and 13 stolen bases as well on the year. Jose Trevino’s also chipped in 17 doubles this season.
Why the Cincinnati Reds will win
The Mets have lost six of their last seven games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
The Reds have won four of their last five games as underdogs against National League opponents following a win.
The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine games as favorites against NL Central opponents.
The road team has covered the run line in each of the Mets’ last four games.
Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts
Austin Hays has hit at least one home run in each of the Reds’ last two games as underdogs.
Austin Hays has recorded at least one hit in each of his eight previous appearances with the Reds as underdogs against NL opponents.
Jose Trevino has recorded a Double in four of his last five road appearances after playing the previous day.
Elly De La Cruz ranks 7th in the league in Steals (25) this season.
New York Mets Recap
The New York Mets come into this game looking to bounce back from their loss at the hands of the Reds on Friday to sit at 55-43 this season. After this series, the Mets will take on the Los Angeles Angels at home.
Mets Drop Back-To-Back Games
Pete Alonso has 101 hits with 26 doubles, 21 home runs, 77 RBIs, and a .277 batting average, while Juan Soto has 90 hits with 15 doubles, 24 home runs, and 57 RBIs on the year. Francisco Lindor has 99 hits with 15 stolen bases along with 18 doubles, 19 home runs, and 54 RBIs, while Mark Vientos has 6 home runs and 24 RBIs, but also has 64 strikeouts so far this season. Brandon Nimmo has also added 92 hits with 18 doubles and 18 home runs and 53 RBIs this season. Luis Torrens has also chipped in 10 doubles, and Luisangel Acuna has 11 stolen bases as well this season.
Why the New York Mets will win
The Mets have won each of their last six games against NL Central opponents following a home loss.
The Reds have lost each of their last six day games against the Mets following a win.
The Mets have covered the run line in seven of their last eight day games against the Reds following a loss.
The Reds have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four day games against the Mets following a win.
New York Mets Player Prop Facts
Juan Soto has hit a home run in each of the Mets’ last three games as favorites.
Juan Soto has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances against the Reds after playing the previous day.
Juan Soto ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.394) this season.
Total Runs Facts
Each of the Reds’ last five day games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Each of the Mets’ last four home games have gone OVER the total runs line.
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets Prediction
I’m on the over here. I just don’t trust either starting pitcher in this matchup as I think Martinez is more of a liability than an asset to this Reds rotation, and I think Holmes is starting to regress a bit after pitching above his pay grade to start the season. These are still two quality lineups between these two teams especially against right-handed pitching, and I think that the over is well within reach when all is said and done here. Give me the over in this one.