New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Prediction 9/23/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Mets vs Cubs Prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, September 23rd at the Wrigley Field in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Chicago Cubs Preview

The Chicago Cubs have an 88-68 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL Central. The Cubs have a 46-29 home record and are 69-74 in over/under. They are coming off a 0-1 road defeat by the Reds, and have four straight defeats. Under is 10-5-1 in their last 16 games and are playing the Cardinals next.

The Cubs have a .249 batting average this season, .320 OBP and .426 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 3.82 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Nico Hoerner leads the Cubs with 171 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .299 batting average. Seiya Suzuki leads the team in RBI, with 91, while Michael Busch adds a team-high 30 home runs.

Cade Horton (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs, and he has a 11-4 record, 2.66 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.

New York Mets Preview

The New York Mets have an 80-76 record this season and are sitting on the second place of the NL East. The Mets have a 31-44 road record and are 73-75 in over/under. They are coming off a 2-3 home defeat by the Nationals, and have back-to-back losses. Over is 6-3 in their last 9 games and are playing the Marlins next.

The Mets have a .250 batting average this season, .327 OBP and .429 slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 3.99 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.  Francisco Lindor leads the Mets with 166 hits, while Pete Alonso leads the team in batting average with .274. He also adds a team-high 122 RBI, while Juan Soto adds team-high 42 home runs.

David Peterson (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets, and he has a 9-6 record, 3.98 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.

New York Mets @ the Chicago Cubs Betting Trends: September 23, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Cade Horton      Record this season: 11-4      ERA: 2.66
• Home Record: 3-1
• Last 5 against Mets: 1-0

Why the Chicago Cubs will win

• The Mets have lost each of their last 10 road games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The Cubs have won each of their last six games against the Mets following a road loss.
• The Cubs have covered the run line in each of their last eight night games against NL East opponents following a road loss.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight road games.
• The Cubs have led after 5 innings in 10 of their last 11 night games at Wrigley Field against National League opponents.
• The Cubs have led after 3 innings in nine of their last 10 home night games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: David Peterson      Record this season: 9-6      ERA: 3.98
• Road Record: 4-4
• Last 5 against Cubs: 1-2

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Mets have won each of their last eight games against the Cubs following a loss.
• The Cubs have lost three of their last four games as home favorites against National League opponents.
• The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight home games against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games against the Cubs following a loss.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games as underdogs against NL Central opponents.
• The Cubs have lost the first inning in three of their last four games as home favorites.
• The Cubs have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last four games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mets’ last eight night games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Eight of the Cubs’ last nine night games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Mets’ last seven night games.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Cubs’ last eight night games at Wrigley Field.

Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts

• Ian Happ has hit a home run in each of the Cubs’ last two games as home favorites.
• Ian Happ has recorded at least one Double in six of the Cubs’ last eight home games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Nico Hoerner has recorded two hits in each of the Cubs’ last four home games.
• Nico Hoerner ranks T6th in the league in Hits (171) this season.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Pete Alonso has hit a home run in each of the Mets’ last four games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Juan Soto has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last 12 road games against NL Central opponents.
• Juan Soto ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.399) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Cubs rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (394).
• The Cubs rank 3rd in the league for steals this season (155).
• The Mets rank 2nd in the league for home runs allowed this season (143).
• The Mets are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both steals and home runs this season.

Mets vs Cubs Prediction

The Mets are 3-1 in their last 4 head-to-head meetings against the Cubs, and are 2-1 in their last 3 meetings in Chicago. Over is 4-2-1 in their last 7 meetings.

In this Mets vs Cubs Prediction, the Cubs are coming as -120 home favorites. The Cubs have clinched their playoff spot and are not looking very interested in winning, as they got swept by the Reds. The Mets are still fighting for a wild card spot, but they put Peterson on the mound, who has been horrendous lately, with a 9.00 ERA across his last 5 starts. Horton on the other side, has been excellent for the Cubs, with just 2 earned runs in his last three starts and a 1.32 ERA in his last five starts. Chicago also has the better bullpen and better offense, so I expect them to bounce back and get the job done at home in this one.