New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 5/20/25 MLB Picks

The New York Mets and the Boston Red Sox meet Monday in MLB action from Fenway Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a New York Mets vs. Boston Red Sox prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The New York Mets will start Clay Holmes here, and Holmes is 5-2 with a 3.14 ERA and 48 strikeouts this season. This will be Holmes’ first career start against the Red Sox. The Boston Red Sox did not have a starter announced at the time that this article was posted.

New York Mets Recap

The New York Mets will be out to bounce back after ending up with a 3-1 loss at the hands of the Red Sox in Monday’s series opener. After this series, the Mets will head home for a marquee series against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Mets Fall Flat In Monday’s Opener

Pete Alonso has 52 hits with 16 doubles, 9 home runs, 37 RBIs, and a .301 batting average, while Juan Soto has 41 hits with 9 doubles, 8 home runs, and 20 RBIs on the year. Francisco Lindor has 53 hits with 6 stolen bases along with 8 doubles, 9 home runs, and 28 RBIs, while Mark Vientos has 5 home runs, 18 RBIs, but 37 strikeouts so far this season. Brandon Nimmo has also added 38 hits with 9 doubles and 8 home runs, and 27 RBIs this season. Luis Torrens has also chipped in 8 doubles, and Luisangel Acuna has 10 stolen bases as well this season.

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Red Sox have lost four of their last five night games following a win.
• The favorites have won nine of the Mets’ last 10 games at Fenway Park.
• The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight night games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
• The road team has covered the run line in five of the Red Sox’s last six games.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Tyrone Taylor has recorded an RBI in four of his five previous appearances against the Red Sox.
• Jose Siri has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances in night games against AL teams that held a losing record.
• Juan Soto has scored at least one run in each of his last eight Tuesday appearances against AL teams that held a losing record.
• Tyrone Taylor has recorded a Double in three of his last four appearances against AL East opponents.
• Juan Soto has recorded a Single in each of his last eight appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
• Juan Soto has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
• Clay Holmes ranks T7th in the league for Wins (5) this season.

Boston Red Sox Recap

The Boston Red Sox will look to keep the ball rolling after squeezing out the win in Monday’s opener to improve to 24-25 on the year. After this series, the Red Sox will take on the Baltimore Orioles in a divisional series at home.

Red Sox Get Back On Track

Alex Bregman leads the Red Sox with 56 hits, including a team-high 16 doubles, along with 11 home runs and 34 RBIs, while Rafael Devers has added 52 hits with 14 doubles, 9 home runs and 38 RBIs this season. Trevor Story added 41 hits with 6 home runs, 20 RBIs, and 8 stolen bases, while Jarren Duran has 54 hits with 10 doubles, 5 triples, 3 home runs, 27 RBIs, and a team-high 12 stolen bases. Kristian Campbell added 35 hits with 8 doubles, 5 homers, and 15 RBIs, while Wilyer Abreu has 11 home runs with 27 RBIs and 4 stolen bases, and Ceddanne Rafaela has 2 homers, 2 triples, 18 RBIs, and 7 stolen bases this season.

Why the Boston Red Sox will win

• The Red Sox have won each of their last 12 night games against NL East opponents following a home win.
• The Mets have lost 12 of their last 15 games as favorites against American League opponents following a road loss.
• The home team has covered the run line in each of the last nine games between the Mets and Red Sox.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line each of their last 10 Tuesday games against American League opponents that held a losing record.

Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts

• Alex Bregman has recorded at least one Double in four of the Red Sox’s last five home games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Jarren Duran has scored at least one run in each of the Red Sox’s last six home games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
• Jarren Duran has recorded a Single in eight of the Red Sox’s last nine games against NL East opponents.
• Trevor Story has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a winning record.
• Walker Buehler has recorded five or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a winning record.
• Walker Buehler has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances.
• Triston Casas has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four home appearances against NL East opponents.
• Triston Casas has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances in night games against teams that held a winning record.
• Alex Bregman ranks T6th in the league in Hits (57) this season.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Mets’ last four games as favorites against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Red Sox’s last six night games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.

New York Mets vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction

I’m leaning towards the Mets here. I would love to see how the Mets respond after coming out flat in Monday’s matchup, but I just think the Mets are the more trustworthy lineup here and have done such a good job at winning games with Holmes as the starter this season. I think that the Mets even up the series here and get the win. Give me New York.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: New York Mets -120