| MATCHUP | New York Mets | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 36-53 | 52-35 |
| Spread | +1.5 -193 | -1.5 158 |
| Moneyline | -101 | -119 |
| Total | Over 9 (-111) | Under 9 (-108) |
| Where | Truist Park, Atlanta, Georgia | |
| When | Sunday, July 5, 2026 | |
| Time | 12:30 PM EDT | |
| TV | NBC | |
Atlanta Braves Preview
The Atlanta Braves have a 52‑35 record this season and are sitting in the 1st place of the NL East. They have a 27‑16 home record and are coming off a 14‑3 home win against the Mets. They will face the Pirates and the Cardinals next.
The Braves have a .247 batting average this season, .312 OBP and .411 Slugging percentage. Atlanta’s pitching staff has a 3.46 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Michael Harris II is the team’s best hitter with a .301 batting average. Matt Olson leads the team in RBI with 54, adding a team‑high 22 home runs.
Martin Perez (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves, and he has a 6‑5 record, 3.27 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.
New York Mets Preview
The New York Mets have a 36‑53 record this season and are sitting in the 5th place of the NL East. They have a 17‑29 road record and are coming off a 3‑14 road defeat against the Braves. They will face the Royals and the Red Sox next.
The Mets have a .230 batting average this season, .298 OBP and .375 Slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 4.25 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Juan Soto is the team’s best hitter with a .296 batting average, adding a team‑high 18 home runs. Bo Bichette leads the team in RBI with 47.
Nolan McLean (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets, and he has a 5‑5 record, 3.78 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves Betting Trends: July 5, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Martin Perez Record this season: 6-5 ERA: 3.27
- Home Record: 3-3
- Last 5 against Mets: 2-0
Why the Atlanta Braves will win
- The Mets have lost each of their last 10 games as underdogs.
- The home team has won five of the last six games between the Mets and Braves.
- The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven road games against NL East opponents following a loss.
- The Braves have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as favorites against the Mets following a win.
- The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last seven games against NL East opponents.
- The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five games as road underdogs.
- The Mets have lost the first inning in four of their last five games as road underdogs.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Nolan McLean Record this season: 5-5 ERA: 3.78
- Road Record: 3-1
- Last 5 against Braves: 1-0
Why the New York Mets will win
- The underdogs have won seven of the Braves’ last 10 games at Truist Park.
- The Braves have lost nine of their last 13 games as favorites.
- The Braves have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games following a win.
- The Mets have covered the run line each of their last six Sunday day games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
- The Braves have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four home day games.
- The Braves have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five day games against NL East opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Five of the Mets’ last six day games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Each of the Braves’ last three games as favorites against the Mets have gone OVER the total runs line.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of Martin Perez’s last seven appearances as a starter.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Mets’ last six games at Truist Park.
Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts
- Michael Harris has hit a home run in three of the Braves’ last four games against the Mets.
- Ozzie Albies has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 22 home appearances against the Mets.
- Michael Harris is one of only four players to hit over .300 and have 45+ RBIs this season.
New York Mets Player Prop Facts
- Mark Vientos has hit at least one home run in each of his last three road appearances against the Braves.
- Nolan McLean has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his three previous appearances with the Mets as underdogs.
- Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances against NL East opponents.
- Juan Soto ranks 4th amongst qualified players for On Base Percentage (.404) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Braves rank 3rd in the league for ERA this season (3.46).
- The Braves rank 3rd in the league for hits allowed this season (652).
- The Mets rank 30th in the league for doubles this season (106).
- The Mets rank 30th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.298).
Mets vs Braves Prediction
Both teams are tied 5-5 in their last 10 meetings and the Braves have won their last two meetings in Atlanta.
In this Mets vs Braves Prediction, the Braves are coming as -170 home favorites. At this point the Mets are an auto-fade the way they have been playing, having a 2-8 record in their last 10 games, having 28 earned runs in their last three games. Perez has been better at home for the Braves, who have the 7th-best offense in the league and the best bullpen. Tae the Braves to win this one at home.