Texas (61-61) vs Toronto (71-51)
August 15, 2025 at 07:07 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Toronto 0.0001 — Over/Under: +7.5
Chris Bassitt Under 2.5 Earned Runs
Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays 7:07 PM EST
Chris Bassitt has been delivering a solid season for the Toronto Blue Jays, appearing in 25 games (24 starts) and compiling an 11–6 record with a 4.17 ERA over 133.2 innings pitched. He pitched to a 1.32 WHIP and recorded 128 strikeouts, ranking among the top 30 for strikeouts in the league. Under the surface, his underlying metrics provide a fuller picture of his performance. Opponents’ contact against him averaged an exit velocity of 87.3 mph, with a hard-hit rate of 35.6%, a wOBA of .330, and an xwOBA of .324, indicating that his actual outcomes are in line with the quality of contact he’s allowed. He has specifically been strong when playing in Toronto this season. He’ll be up against this Rangers team that has been inconsistent at the plate all season long. I expect another strong home performance for Chris Bassitt.
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Aaron Civale Over 2.5 Earned Runs
Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals 8:10 PM EST
Aaron Civale has made 15 starts for the White Sox so far in the 2025 season, posting a 3–7 record with a 4.91 ERA across 73.1 innings. He has struck out 62 batters while carrying a 1.34 WHIP, and his strikeout and walk rates sit at 19.6% and 8.5% respectively. Opposing hitters have made decent contact against him, with an average exit velocity of 87.9 mph, a 37.5% hard-hit rate, and a 9.4% barrel rate, contributing to an expected wOBA of .319. We saw Civale pitch 3 straight shutout games, but in his last start, he surrendered 9 earned runs against the Guardians. I see him getting hit up in this game, going against this Royals offense that had a successful series against the Nationals and has been hitting the ball better as the season has progressed.
Brandon Young Over 2.5 Earned Runs
Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros 8:10 PM EST
Brandon Young, the right-handed rookie for the Baltimore Orioles, has appeared in 10 games, all as starts, logging 44.1 innings in his debut MLB season to date. He has yet to record a win, and his win–loss record stands at 0–6, alongside a 6.70 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP. From a batted-ball perspective, hitters are getting solid contact off him. He’s allowing an average exit velocity of 89.9 mph, a hard-hit rate of 44.4%, and a barrel rate of 10.4%. It’s been a nightmare start to Brandon Young’s career, and things won’t get easier in this game. The Astros are coming off a great series against the Red Sox and have been seeing the ball well as of late. I expect Brandon Young to get hit up once again in this one.