Boston (53-45) vs Chicago (57-39)
July 18, 2025 at 02:20 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Chicago -1.5 — Over/Under: +8.5
Colin Rea Over 2.5 Earned Runs
Boston Red Sox vs Chicago Cubs 2:20 PM EST
Colin Rea has delivered a decent 2025 season for the Chicago Cubs. In 18 games (14 starts), he’s compiled a 7–3 record with a 3.91 ERA across 92 innings, striking out 65 batters and maintaining a 1.26 WHIP. His strikeout rate is a modest 16.9%, slightly under league average, while his walk rate of 5.9% sits comfortably in the better half of pitchers. Rea has shown signs of greatness, but has also struggled in certain spots as well. I don’t love this spot for him going against the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox are currently riding a 10-game winning streak and were the hottest team coming into this All-Star break. I can see this Boston lineup giving Rea a hard time in this one.
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Dylan Cease Over 2.5 Earned Runs
San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals 6:45 PM EST
Dylan Cease has had a roller-coaster 2025 season with the San Diego Padres, flashing elite stuff but struggling to convert it consistently into wins. Across 19 starts, he compiled a 3–9 record with a 4.88 ERA over 103.1 innings, striking out a career-high 129 batters (11.24 K/9) while posting a 1.33 WHIP. His strikeout rate of 29.0% places him among the top‑tier power arms in MLB, though his walk rate of 8.8% suggests some command volatility. Even though Cease still has some nasty strikeout abilities, he has been getting hit up this season. He’s allowed 3+ runs in all of his last 3 starts. The top of this Nationals lineup is full of dangerous hitters who can get after Cease early and often. I don’t like Cease in this first game back from the All-Star break.
Andre Pallante Under 3.5 K’s
St. Louis Cardnials vs Arizona D-Backs 9:40 PM EST
Pallante holds a 5–5 record with a 4.49 ERA over 100.1 innings pitched, along with 64 strikeouts and a 1.30 WHIP. While not overpowering, Pallante has been dependable, keeping his walk rate manageable and limiting major damage. His hard-hit rate sits at 42.8% with an average exit velocity of 89.6 mph, both hovering around league average. Pallante is coming off his worst start of the season giving up 7 earned runs against the Washington Nationals. Things don’t get easier for him in this one, facing this lethal lineup of the D-backs. This game will also be played in Chase Field, which is one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the league. I expect Pallante to get touched up in this one.