Toronto (59-42) vs Detroit (60-43)
July 24, 2025 at 06:40 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Detroit -1.5 — Over/Under: +8.5
Eric Lauer Over 4.5 K’s
Toronto Blue Jays vs Detroit Tigers 6:40 PM EST
Eric Lauer has experienced a strong resurgence in his first season back in the majors with the Toronto Blue Jays. Over 15 appearances (9 starts), he carries a 5–2 record with a 2.80 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 65 strikeouts in 61 innings. He allows an average exit velocity of 91.2 mph, a hard-hit rate of 44.6%, and just a 7.6% barrel rate. His actual wOBA against (.269) aligns closely with his expected (.284), indicating his results are driven by solid performance, not luck. His strikeout numbers have been impressive lately, with Lauer logging 5+ strikeouts in 4 of his last 5 starts. I like him to continue this success in this one, going against a Tigers lineup that has just fallen apart since returning from the All-Star Break.
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Logan Evans Under 15.5 Pitching Outs
Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Angels 9:38 PM EST
Through 10 starts (54.1 innings), he’s compiled a 3–3 record with a solid 3.81 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP, striking out 40 batters, about a 17% K-rate, while walking 7.7%, nearly league average. Evans has struggled on the road (6.87 ERA in five road outings). Even though some of his numbers don’t look awful on paper, we do have to remember that he pitches at T-Mobile Park, which is the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in the league. In this one, he’ll be taking on the Angels in Anaheim, which isn’t an easy ballpark to pitch in. He’s failed to pitch over 15 innings in 3 of his last 4 starts, and I see that trend continuing in this matchup.
Charlie Morton Over 2.5 Earned Runs
Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians 6:40 PM EST
Charlie Morton, now age 41, has started 15 games out of 21 appearances this year, pitching 88.2 innings and holding a 5–8 record with a 5.58 ERA, a 1.56 WHIP, and 92 strikeouts. His strikeout rate is a solid 22.5%, while his walk rate remains a concern. Morton has allowed an average exit velocity of 90.6 mph, a 40.2% hard-hit rate, and a 7.7% barrel rate, indicating hitters are making well-struck contact. After we saw Morton go on a good stretch of pitching, he returned to his old ways, allowing 7 earned runs in his last start against the Rays. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see Morton go through another tough stretch.