Minnesota Twins vs Washington Nationals Prediction 07/27/2025 Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Washington Nationals vs Minnesota Twins Prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, July 27^th at the Target Field in the third game of this series, with both teams being tied 1-1 wins. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Minnesota Twins Preview

The Minnesota Twins have a 50-54 record this season and are sitting in 4th place in the AL Central. The Twins have a 29-21 home record and are 43-54 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-9 home defeat by the Nationals, and are 4-5 in their last 9 games. Under is 6-3 in their last 9 games, and they are playing the Red Sox and the Guardians next.

The Twins have a .242 batting average this season, a .313 OBP, and a.400 Slugging percentage. Minnesota’s pitching staff has a 4.17 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Byron Buxton leads the Twins with 92 hits, adding a team-high 59 RBI, 23 home runs, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .282 batting average.

The Twins have not yet announced a starting pitcher for this game.

Washington Nationals Preview

The Washington Nationals have a 42-62 record this season and are sitting on the last place of the NL East. The Nationals have a 21-31 road record and are 54-46 in over/under. They are coming off a 9-3 road victory over the Twins, which snapped their previous two-game losing streak. Under is 3-1 in their last 4 games, and are playing the Astros and the Brewers next.

The Nationals have a .244 batting average this season, .310 OBP and .389 Slugging percentage. Washington’s pitching staff has a 5.14 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. James Wood leads the Nationals with 103 hits, adding 70 RBI and a team-high 24 home runs. CJ Abrams is the team’s best hitter with a .271 batting average.

Jake Irvin (R) will take the mound for the Nationals, and he has a 7-5 record, 4.81 ERA and 1.33 WHIP.

Why the Minnesota Twins will win

• The Nationals have lost each of their last eight day games following a win.
• The Twins have won each of their last five games at Target Field following a loss.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line each of their last eight day games against teams that held a losing record.
• The Twins have covered the run line in three of their last four home games following a home loss.
• The Nationals have lost the first inning in four of their last five day games against American League opponents.
• The Nationals have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last seven day games against American League opponents.
• The Nationals have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last eight day games.

Why the Washington Nationals will win

• The Twins have lost four of their last five games as favorites against National League opponents following a home loss.
• The Nationals have won three of their last four games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
• The Twins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight games as favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Nationals have covered the run line in seven of their last eight road games against American League opponents after playing the previous day.
• The Nationals have won the first inning in four of their last five day games against the Twins.
• The Twins have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games at Target Field against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
• The Nationals have led after 5 innings in three of their last four games against AL Central opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Ten of the Nationals’ last 11 games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Six of the Twins’ last seven games as favorites against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Twins’ last six home games.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Nationals’ last five road games.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Twins rank 1st in the league for walks allowed this season (268).
• The Twins rank T25th in the league for steals this season (53).
• The Nationals rank 28th in the league for ERA this season (5.14).
• The Nationals rank 28th in the league for opponent batting average this season (.264).

Washington Nationals vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

The Twins are 3-1 in their last 4 meetings against the Nats, but the Nationals are 5-2 in their last 7 visits in Minnesota. Under is 5-3 in their last 8 meetings in Minnesota.  

In this Washington Nationals vs Minnesota Twins Prediction, the Twins are coming as -185 home favorites. The Twins are rightfully favored, as they have a better overall record, and have been very strong at home, while the Nats are struggling on the road. Irvin has been weaker on the road for the Nationals, with a 5.34 road ERA, and has been in terrible form lately, with a 7.20 ERA across his last five starts. The Nationals also have the worst bullpen in the league, but I cannot back Minnesota as big home favorites without knowing their starting pitcher. David Festa is a possibility, and if he starts, he has a 5.40 ERA and 1.28 WHIP this season. So with two struggling pitchers, and the worst bullpen in the league, I expect a high-scoring game, so take the over 9.5 runs in this one.