Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres Prediction 8/23/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The Minnesota Twins and the San Diego Padres meet Sunday in MLB action from Petco Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Minnesota Twins will send out Bailey Ober for the start here and Ober is 7-4 with a 4.62 ERA and 71 strikeouts this season. Walker Buehler will start for the Padres here and is 7-6 with a 4.79 ERA and 104 strikeouts this season.

Minnesota Twins Recap

The Minnesota Twins come into this game looking to rebound from their 7-5 loss at the hands of the Padres last time out to sit at 63-67 this season. After this series, the Twins will head on the road for a series against the Athletics.

Twins Drop Back-To-Back Games

Byron Buxton has 90 hits with 17 doubles, a triple, 25 home runs and 46 RBIs while Josh Bell’s added 117 hits with 26 doubles, 17 home runs and 77 RBIs. Luke Keaschall has 109 hits with 19 doubles, 7 homers and 36 RBIs. Brooks Lee has 110 hits with 19 doubles, 3 triples, 18 home runs and 67 RBIs and Victor Caratini has 38 RBIs while Kody Clemens has 97 hits with 21 doubles, 5 triples, 21 home runs and 61 RBIs this season.

San Diego Padres Recap

The San Diego Padres come into this game looking to add on to their win over Minnesota from Saturday to sit at 70-60 this season. After this series, the Padres will take on the Pittsburgh Pirates in a matchup at home.

Padres Win 6 Of Last 9

Jackson Merrill has 116 hits with 20 doubles, 19 home runs and 63 RBIs while Gavin Sheets has 74 hits with 15 doubles, 16 home runs and 46 RBIs as well on the year. Fernando Tatis Jr. has 137 hits with 26 doubles, 15 home runs and 61 RBIs and Xander Bogaerts has 91 hits with 12 doubles, 11 home runs and 46 RBIs. Manny Machado also has 100 hits with 20 doubles, 24 home runs and 71 RBIs as well on the year.

Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres Betting Trends: August 23, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Walker Buehler      Record this season: 7-6      ERA: 4.79
• Home Record: 3-3
• Last 5 against Twins: –

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Padres have won each of their last eight home games against AL Central opponents following a home win.
• The Twins have lost each of their last five games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Padres have covered the run line in each of their last six home games.
• The Twins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last five games against NL West opponents.
• The Twins have lost the first inning in seven of their last eight road games against National League opponents.
• The Twins have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six road day games.
• The Twins have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six road day games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober      Record this season: 7-4      ERA: 4.62
• Road Record: 2-3
• Last 5 against Padres: 0-0

Why the Minnesota Twins will win

• The Twins have won each of their last six day games against NL West opponents following a road loss.
• The Padres have lost three of their last four games following a win.
• The Twins have covered the run line in each of their last six day games against NL West opponents following a road loss.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four day games against AL Central opponents following a win.
• The Twins have led after 3 innings in five of their last six games.
• The Twins have led after 5 innings in six of their last seven games against the Padres.
• The Padres have lost the first inning in three of their last four day games against American League opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the last eight games between the Twins and Padres have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Twins’ last six games as underdogs against the Padres have gone OVER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in each of the Twins’ last eight road games against National League opponents.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in eight of the Padres’ last nine day games.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Jackson Merrill has hit a home run in three of the Padres’ last four games as home favorites.
• Walker Buehler has recorded a win in each of his four previous appearances against AL Central opponents.
• Freddy Fermin has recorded at least one hit in each of his seven previous appearances against the Twins after playing the previous day.
• Walker Buehler has recorded four or more strikeouts in 17 of his last 19 appearances in day games against teams that held a losing record.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks T8th in the league in Hits (142) this season.

Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts

• Brooks Lee has hit a home run in two of the Twins’ last three road games.
• Bailey Ober has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances against NL West opponents.
• Kody Clemens has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven appearances with the Twins as underdogs.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres rank T26th in the league for triples this season (11).
• The Padres rank 25th in the league for hits this season (1020).
• The Twins are one of only four teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and on-base percentage this season.
• The Twins rank 27th in the league for runs allowed this season (646).

Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres Prediction

I’m backing the Padres here. I just like what I’ve seen fro Walker Buehler as he has been a profitable option for the Padres’ starting rotation this season. On the flipside, Bailey Ober has been hit or miss and the Padres have been at their best against right-handed pitching this season. Give me the Padres.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: San Diego -135