Detroit Tigers (51-53) vs Minnesota Twins (56-45)
Game Info: Friday, July 26, 2024 at 6:40 pm (Comerica Park)
The Line: Betting Odds: Detroit Tigers +145 / Minnesota Twins -175 — Over/Under: 7.5
In this article we will formulate a Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers prediction for this MLB game on Friday, July 26th at Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan. To formulate this prediction for game one in the series, we will examine:
- The Twins recent form and recent player performance
- The Tigers recent form and recent play performance
- Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Minnesota
- Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Detroit
- Recent betting trends in games played between Minnesota and Detroit
- A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for Today’s Game between Minnesota and Detroit
Twins are Trying to Catch Cleveland
The Minnesota Twins are 56-45 this season and they have lost four of their last six games. Minnesota is coming off of a series win against Philadelphia, where they won two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Twins lost both games against the Brewers, lost two out of three against the Giants, and won two out of three against the White Sox. Minnesota is 4-6 in their last ten games and they are second in the AL Central, 4.5 games behind Cleveland.
The Minnesota pitching staff has a 4.11 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and a .235 opponent batting average. The Twins offense has scored 489 runs with a .252 batting average and a .324 on base percentage. Carlos Santana is batting .246 with 14 home runs and 46 RBI’s for the Twins this season. Minnesota has scored at least four runs in four of their last five games.
Tigers Finish Successful Road Trip
The Detroit Tigers are 51-53 this year and they have won six of their last nine games. Detroit is coming off of a series split against Cleveland, where they won two games and lost two games. Prior to that series, the Tigers won two out of three against the Blue Jays, won two out of three against the Dodgers, and won three out of four against the Guardians. Detroit is 12-5 in their last 17 games and they are fourth in the AL Central.
The Detroit pitching staff has a 3.89 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a .242 opponent batting average. The Tigers offense has scored 445 runs with a .233 batting average and a .298 on base percentage. Riley Greene is batting .264 with 17 home runs and 51 RBI’s for the Tigers this season. Detroit has allowed three runs or fewer in four of their last six games.
Starting Pitchers
The projected starting pitcher for Minnesota is Pablo Lopez, who is 8-7 with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over 111.0 innings pitched this year. Lopez has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. The projected starting pitcher for Detroit is Keider Montero, who is 1-3 with a 5.97 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP over 31.2 innings pitched this season. Montero has allowed five earned runs in each of his last two starts and three of his last five.
Why the Tigers will beat the Twins
- The Twins have lost four of their last five games as favorites.
- The Tigers have won four of their last five games as home underdogs against American League opponents.
- The Tigers have covered the run line in each of their last 12 games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
- The Twins have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight night games following a home win.
- The Twins have trailed after 3 innings in six of their last nine games as road favorites against AL Central opponents.
Why the Twins will beat the Tigers
- The Twins have won 19 of their last 22 night games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Tigers have lost six of their last seven night games at Comerica Park following a win.
- The road team has covered the run line in eight of the Tigers’ last 10 games.
- The Tigers have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight Friday home games against AL Central opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Thirteen of the Tigers’ last 16 games against American League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Four of the Twins’ last five games have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Tigers’ last six games at Comerica Park.
Detroit Tigers Player Prop Facts
- Carson Kelly has hit a home run in three of his last five appearances against AL Central opponents.
- Carson Kelly has recorded at least one RBI in each of his last four home appearances against AL opponents.
- Kerry Carpenter has recorded at least one Single in seven of his last eight home appearances against AL Central opponents that held a winning record.
- Matt Vierling has scored at least one run in each of his last five home appearances against AL Central opponents.
- Matt Vierling has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances with the Tigers as home underdogs against AL Central opponents.
- Matt Vierling has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 10 appearances with the Tigers as home underdogs against AL Central opponents.
- Matt Vierling has recorded a Double in three of the Tigers’ last four home games against opponents that held a winning record.
Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts
- Pablo Lopez has recorded seven or more strikeouts in each of his three previous appearances at Comerica Park.
- Byron Buxton has scored at least one run in each of his last seven appearances with the Twins as favorites against AL opponents.
- Jose Miranda has recorded at least one Single in 13 of his last 14 appearances.
- Byron Buxton has recorded at least one Double in each of his last four appearances against AL Central opponents.
- Carlos Correa has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight road appearances.
- Byron Buxton has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last seven appearances against AL opponents.
- Pablo Lopez has recorded a win in three of his last four road appearances against AL opponents that held a losing record.
- Carlos Correa has hit a home run in five of his last nine appearances against the Tigers after not playing the previous day.
- Carlos Correa has recorded an RBI in four of his five previous road appearances against the Tigers after not playing the previous day.
Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers Prediction
Minnesota comes into this series just a few games behind Cleveland in the race for the AL Central, but they will take on a very hot Detroit team here. The Tigers are 24-24 at home, while the Twins are 27-24 on the road. Detroit’s offense has been very good over the last few weeks, but they are starting Montero in this game, who has not been very good. Minnesota is going with Pablo Lopez, who does have an elevated ERA on the season, but he has been pretty good recently. I think both offenses are going to find success here and Minnesota should jump on Montero. My Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers prediction is for this game to go over the total.