| MATCHUP | Minnesota Twins | Boston Red Sox |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 23-27 | 22-27 |
| Spread | +1.5 -168 | -1.5 139 |
| Moneyline | +130 | -157 |
| Total | Over 7.5 (-113) | Under 7.5 (-106) |
| Where | Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts | |
| When | Friday, May 22, 2026 | |
| Time | 07:10 PM EDT | |
| TV | ESPN Unlmtd | |
In this article, we will formulate a Twins vs Red Sox Prediction for this MLB matchup on Friday, May 22nd in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Boston Red Sox Preview
The Boston Red Sox have a 22-27 record this season and are sitting in the fourth place of the AL East. They have a 8-14 home record and are coming off a 4-3 win against the Royals. They will face the Braves and the Guardians next.
The Red Sox have a .240 batting average this season, .314 OBP and .366 Slugging percentage. Boston’s pitching staff has a 3.68 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Wilyer Abreu is the team’s best hitter with a .292 batting average. Willson Contreras leads the team in RBI with 30, adding a team-high 10 home runs.
Payton Tolle (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Red Sox, and he has a 2-2 record, 2.05 ERA and 0.78 WHIP.
Minnesota Twins Preview
The Minnesota Twins have a 23-27 record this season and are sitting in the third place of the AL Central. They have a 8-13 away record and are coming off a 4-1 win against the Astros. They will face the White Sox and the Pirates next.
The Twins have a .236 batting average this season, .322 OBP and .387 Slugging percentage. Minnesota’s pitching staff has a 4.20 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Byron Buxton is the team’s best hitter with a .260 batting average, also adding a team-high 15 home runs. Josh Bell leads the team in RBI with 29.
Connor Prielipp (L) is the projected starting pitcher for the Twins, and he has a 1-2 record, 2.88 ERA and 0.96 WHIP.
Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox Betting Trends: May 22, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Payton Tolle Record this season: 2-2 ERA: 2.05
- Home Record: 0-1
- Last 5 against Twins: –
Why the Boston Red Sox will win
- The Red Sox have won each of their last seven games against AL Central opponents.
- The Twins have lost each of their last eight Friday night games.
- The Twins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine Friday night games.
- The Red Sox have covered the run line in seven of their last eight night games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Red Sox have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games against AL Central opponents.
- The Twins have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last eight Friday night games.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Connor Prielipp Record this season: 1-2 ERA: 2.88
- Road Record: 0-1
- Last 5 against Red Sox: –
Why the Minnesota Twins will win
- The Red Sox have lost eight of their last nine games as home favorites against American League opponents following a win.
- The underdogs have won four of the Twins’ last five games at Fenway Park.
- The Red Sox have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 10 home games against American League opponents following a win.
- The road team has covered the run line in six of the Red Sox’s last seven games.
- The Twins have won the first inning in four of their last five games as underdogs against the Red Sox.
- The Twins have led after 3 innings in each of their last four road games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
- The Twins have led after 5 innings in 16 of their last 20 games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Red Sox’s last five home games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Five of the Twins’ last six road games have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Red Sox’s last seven night games at Fenway Park.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Twins’ last five games as underdogs against American League opponents.
Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts
- Jarren Duran has hit a home run in each of the Red Sox’s last two games.
- Masataka Yoshida has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances in night games against AL teams that held a losing record.
Minnesota Twins Player Prop Facts
- Byron Buxton has hit at least one home run in each of the Twins’ last four night games against AL East opponents that held a losing record.
- Ryan Jeffers has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances in night games against AL teams that held a losing record.
- Byron Buxton ranks T5th in the league in Home Runs (15) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Red Sox rank 29th in the league for runs scored this season (181).
- The Red Sox rank 29th in the league for home runs this season (36).
- The Twins rank 26th in the league for strikeouts this season (382).
- The Twins rank T5th in the league for home runs allowed this season (44).
Twins vs Red Sox Prediction
Both teams are tied 5-5 in their last 10 meetings and are 2-2 in their last 4 meetings in Boston.
In this Twins vs Red Sox Prediction, the Red Sox are coming as -150 home favorites. Both teams have been in good form lately and both pitchers have been excellent with a combined 4.93 ERA and both have sub-1.00 WHIP. Both teams are also 12-3 to the under in their last 15 games combined and Boston has the second-best bullpen currently in baseball, so all this project towards a low-scoring affair. Take the under in this one and a lean towards the Red Sox at home.