Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego Padres Prediction 9/22/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article, we will formulate a Brewers vs Padres Prediction for this MLB game on Monday, September 22nd at the Petco Park in the fourth game of this series, with the Padres having the 2-1 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres have an 85-71 record this season and are sitting on the 2nd place of the NL West. The Padres have a 47-28 home record and are 66-84 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-2 road victory over the White Sox, and have back-to-back wins. They are playing the Brewers and the Diamondbacks next.

The Padres have a .252 batting average this season, .321 OBP and .388 slugging percentage. San Diego’s pitching staff has a 3.69 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Luis Arraez leads the Padres with 172 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with .287 batting average. Manny Machado leads the team in RBI, with 93 and in home runs, with 26.

Nick Pivetta (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Padres, and he has a 13-5 record, 2.81 ERA and 0.97 WHIP.

Milwaukee Brewers Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers have a 95-61 record this season and are sitting on the 1st place of the NL Central. The Brewers have a 44-34 road record and are 75-76 in over/under. They are coming off a 5-1 road defeat by the Cardinals, and are 2-2 in their last 4 games. They are playing the Padres and the Reds next.

The Brewers have a .261 batting average this season, .334 OBP and .409 slugging percentage. Milwaukee’s pitching staff has a 3.61 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Brice Turang leads the Brewers with 161 hits, while is the team’s best hitter, with a .294 batting average. He also leads the team in RBI, with 100, adding a team-high 29 home runs.

Freddy Peralta (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Brewers, and he has a 17-6 record, 2.65 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.

Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres Betting Trends: September 22, 2025

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Nick Pivetta      Record this season: 13-5      ERA: 2.81
• Home Record: 8-1
• Last 5 against Brewers: 1-3

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Brewers have lost each of their last four games against teams that held a winning record.
• The home team has won 10 of the Brewers’ last 12 games.
• The Brewers have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six road games.
• The home team has covered the run line in each of the Brewers’ last six games.
• The Padres have led after 3 innings in each of their last four home games.
• The Brewers have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six road games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Freddy Peralta      Record this season: 17-6      ERA: 2.65
• Road Record: 8-5
• Last 5 against Padres: 2-1

Why the Milwaukee Brewers will win

• The Brewers have won each of their last six games as underdogs against NL West opponents.
• The Padres have lost four of their last six games as favorites against NL Central opponents following a win.
• The Brewers have covered the run line in each of their last 11 games as underdogs following a loss.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last nine Monday games as favorites.
• The Padres have lost the first inning in three of their last four games.
• The Brewers have led after 5 innings in nine of their last 10 night games against NL West opponents.
• The Brewers have led after 3 innings in each of their last seven Monday games against National League opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Brewers’ last eight games as underdogs against the Padres have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Padres’ last five games as favorites against the Brewers have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the last six games between the Brewers and Padres.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 13 of the Brewers’ last 15 games as road underdogs.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Jackson Merrill has hit a home run in three of the Padres’ last four home games.
• Gavin Sheets has recorded at least one Double in each of the Padres’ last three home games against opponents that held a winning record.
• Nick Pivetta has recorded a win in six of his last eight appearances with the Padres as home favorites against NL opponents.
• Nick Pivetta has recorded seven or more strikeouts in six of his last seven home appearances against NL opponents.
• Xander Bogaerts has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 10 appearances with his team as a favorite against the Brewers.
• Luis Arraez ranks 5th in the league in Hits (172) this season.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Facts

• Sal Frelick has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances.
• Brice Turang has recorded a Double in four of the Brewers’ last five night games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
• Freddy Peralta has recorded a win in each of his last six appearances with the Brewers as underdogs.
• Freddy Peralta has recorded eight or more strikeouts in each of his last four appearances.
• Brice Turang has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 14 appearances against NL West opponents.
• Freddy Peralta ranks T2nd in the league for Wins (17) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres rank 1st in the league for opponent batting average this season (.225).
• The Padres rank 1st in the league for hits allowed this season (1152).
• The Brewers rank 2nd in the league for hits this season (1385).
• The Brewers rank 2nd in the league for batting average this season (.261).

Brewers vs Padres Prediction

The Padres are 7-3 in their last 10 head-to-head meetings against the Brewers, and are 3-1 in their last 4 visits in San Diego. Under is 3-0 in their last 3 meetings.

In this Brewers vs Padres Prediction, the Padres are coming as -130 home favorites. This matchup features a classic pitcher’s duel, with both of them having a combined 5.46 ERA. They are also coming into this matchup in excellent form, as they have a 2.00 and 2.83 ERA across their last 5 starts respectively, and Pivetta has been even better at home, with a 2.22 ERA. On top of that, the Padres also have the best bullpen in baseball, so I expect runs to come at a premium in this one. Take the under 7.