Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Prediction 9/20/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The Miami Marlins and the San Diego Padres meet Sunday in MLB action from Petco Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Miami Marlins will send out Sandy Alcantara for the start here and Alcantara is 13-10 with a 3.84 ERA. San Diego will start Walker Buehler here and Buehler is 8-6 with a 4.58 ERA and 122 strikeouts this season.

Miami Marlins Recap

The Miami Marlins come into this game looking to rebound from a 7-6 loss at the hands of the Padres on Saturday to sit at 76-79 this season. After this game, the Marlins will head on the road for a series against the Cubs.

Marlins Drop Back-To-Back Games

Xavier Edwards has 144 hits with 17 doubles, 6 triples, 6 home runs and 52 RBIs while Otto Lopez has 182 hits with 31 doubles, 9 triples, 10 homers and 69 RBIs. Owen Caissie has 64 hits with 14 doubles, 14 homers and 58 RBIs. Jakob Marsee also has 111 hits with 19 doubles, 6 triples, 11 home runs and 39 RBIs this season. Kyle Stowers has also chipped in 102 hits with 26 doubles, 4 triples, 19 home runs and 61 RBIs.

San Diego Padres Recap

The San Diego Padres come into this game looking to add on to their win over Chicago last time out to sit at 85-69 this season. After this series, San Diego will head on the road for a series against the rival Dodgers.

Padres Win 10 Of Last 11

Jackson Merrill has 149 hits with 25 doubles, 5 triples, 25 home runs and 85 RBIs while Gavin Sheets has 75 hits with 15 doubles, 16 home runs and 46 RBIs as well on the year. Fernando Tatis Jr. has 170 hits with 30 doubles, 3 triples, 23 home runs and 78 RBIs and Xander Bogaerts has 113 hits with 17 doubles, a triple, 12 home runs and 56 RBIs. Manny Machado also has 122 hits with 22 doubles, 28 home runs and 84 RBIs as well on the year.

Miami Marlins @ San Diego Padres Betting Trends: September 20, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Walker Buehler      Record this season: 8-6      ERA: 4.58
• Home Record: 4-3
• Last 5 against Marlins: 1-1

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Padres have won each of their last eight home games against NL East opponents.
• The Marlins have lost 13 of their last 15 road games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six day games after going to extra innings.
• The Padres have covered the run line in four of their last five games against the Marlins.
• The Padres have led after 3 innings in five of their last six day games.
• The Padres have led after 5 innings in each of their last six day games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Sandy Alcantara      Record this season: 13-10      ERA: 3.84
• Road Record: 7-6
• Last 5 against Padres: 2-1

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Marlins have won each of their last seven day games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Padres have lost three of their last four games as favorites after going to extra innings.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last eight games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games as home favorites against NL opponents following a home win.
• The Marlins have led after 3 innings in six of their last seven games against the Padres.
• The Marlins have led after 5 innings in four of their last five day games against NL West opponents that held a winning record.

Total Runs Facts

• Ten of the Padres’ last 11 games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Five of the Marlins’ last six games after going to extra innings have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in 11 of the Padres’ last 12 home games against NL opponents.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in nine of the Marlins’ last 10 road games against NL opponents.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Walker Buehler has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last five Sunday appearances against NL teams that held a losing record.
• Jackson Merrill has hit a home run in two of the Padres’ last three games against the Marlins.
• Jackson Merrill has recorded at least one hit in each of the Padres’ last 10 games.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Graham Pauley has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances in day games.
• Heriberto Hernandez has recorded at least one hit in each of his eight previous road appearances against NL West opponents that held a winning record.
• Sandy Alcantara has recorded four or more strikeouts in each of his last 13 Sunday appearances against teams that held a winning record.
• Sandy Alcantara has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances in day games.
• Otto Lopez ranks 1st in the league in Hits (185) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres are one of only three teams in the league to rank top 10 in both strikeouts and on-base percentage this season.
• The Padres rank 4th in the league for steals this season (156).
• The Marlins rank 2nd in the league for steals this season (159).
• The Marlins rank 3rd in the league for triples this season (35).

Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres Prediction

I’m backing San Diego here. The Padres have an edge as far as I’m concerned in terms of starting pitching, as Buehler has been a lot more consistent than Alcantara has been for Miami this season and I also don’t trust Sandy as much on the road. The Marlins also look like they’re just at the point of playing out the string right now and I look for San Diego to complete the sweep here. Give me the Padres.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: San Diego -135