Philadelphia Phillies (53-27) vs Miami Marlins (28-51)
Game Info: Thursday, June 27, 2024 at 6:20 pm (Citizens Bank Park)
The Line: Betting Odds: Philadelphia Phillies -264 / Miami Marlins +233 — Over/Under: 7.5
The Miami Marlins and the Philadelphia Phillies meet Thursday in MLB action from Citizens Bank Park. Here’s a Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction. This will be the first installment in a four-game series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for the game. We will examine:
The Philadelphia Phillies recent form and player performance
The Miami Marlins recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Philadelphia Phillies
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Miami Marlins
Recent betting trends in games played between the Phillies and Marlins
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Phillies vs Marlins game
Miami Marlins Betting Preview
The Marlins are fresh off a series versus the Kansas City Royals. Miami lost 4-1 on Monday but came back for a 2-1 victory in game two. On Wednesday in the rubber match the Marlins ended up losing 5-1 to drop the set. Valente Bellozo lasted 5.0 clean innings with two hits and no walks as starter.
In the starter slot for the Thursday matchup the Marlins will go with Trevor Rogers. So far this year Rogers is 1-8 with a 4.90 ERA. In 74 career starts Rogers is 14-31 with a 4.28 ERA.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
Over on the Phillies’ side, they took on the Detroit Tigers in their last series. Philadelphia similarly split their first pair 8-1 (win) and 4-1 (loss). On Wednesday the Phillies didn’t have a ton of trouble in a 6-2 win. Philadelphia’s Spencer Turnbull gave up one earned in 3.0 innings of work on the mound.
As starter for Thursday’s game the Phillies are sending out Zack Wheeler. Over his 16 starts Wheeler is 9-4 with a 2.73 ERA. In 243 career starts Wheeler is 96-67 with a 3.40 ERA.
Marlins vs Phillies Pick Injury Notes
Marlins SP Sixto Sanchez (shoulder) could be cleared to throw a bullpen session in a few days. SP Ryan Weathers (finger) will be evaluated again this weekend.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Marlins’ last five games as road underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Ten of the Phillies’ last 12 games as favorites against National League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Phillies’ last five night games against NL East opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last five Thursday games at Citizens Bank Park.
Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts
- Zack Wheeler has recorded seven or more strikeouts in four of his last five appearances against the Marlins at Citizens Bank Park.
- Zack Wheeler has recorded a win in each of his last six appearances at Citizens Bank Park.
- Alec Bohm has recorded a Double in five of the Phillies’ last six games against the Marlins.
- Trea Turner has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 16 appearances at Citizens Bank Park.
- Trea Turner has recorded at least one Single in each of his last 11 appearances at Citizens Bank Park.
- Trea Turner has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 16 appearances with the Phillies as home favorites.
- Bryce Harper has hit a home run in each of the Phillies’ last two night games.
- Kyle Schwarber has recorded at least one RBI in four of his last five appearances with the Phillies as favorites against the Marlins.
- Trea Turner has scored a run in seven of his last eight home appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts
- Tim Anderson has scored a run in each of the Marlins’ last three games against NL opponents.
- Trevor Rogers has recorded eight or more strikeouts in three of his four previous road appearances against the Phillies.
- Jesus Sanchez has hit a home run in each of the Marlins’ last two games as underdogs against NL opponents.
- Jazz Chisholm has recorded an RBI in each of his last three appearances against NL opponents.
- Josh Bell has recorded at least one hit in each of his last nine road appearances against the Phillies.
- Jazz Chisholm has recorded at least one Single in each of his last seven appearances with the Marlins as underdogs against NL opponents.
- Josh Bell has recorded at least one total base in each of his last nine road appearances against the Phillies.
Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
I might take a stab on Miami as a value play here. Rogers has been pitching pretty well over his last three starts with five earned runs in 18.1 total innings. He’s just 0-1 in that trio, however. As for Wheeler, he’s coming off one earned in 7.0 winnings during a victory over the Diamondbacks. Wheeler did cough up eight earned in 4.1 innings versus the Orioles on June 16, though.
On Wednesday the Marlins had a 1-0 lead going into the bottom of the eighth but suffered a bullpen breakdown from there. Miami’s offense wasn’t much help, though. The Marlins need a good bounce-back at the plate Thursday but I think they’ve got a shot.