Miami Marlins vs New York Mets Prediction 7/30/2026 Today’s MLB Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Jul 19, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Eury Perez (39) throws a pitch in the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Miami Marlins
New York Mets
Team Records
55-54
46-63
Spread
+1.5 -205
-1.5 168
Moneyline
+109
-131
Total
Over 7 (-114)
Under 7 (-105)
Where
Citi Field, Queens, New York
When
Thursday, July 30, 2026
Time
07:10 PM EDT
TV
MLB.TV
The Miami Marlins and the New York Mets meet Thursday in MLB action from Citi Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The Miami Marlins will send out Eury Perez for the start here and Perez is 5-8 with a 3.56 ERA and 106 strikeouts this season. Nolan McLean will start for the Mets and is 7-7 with a 3.32 ERA and 142 strikeouts this season.
Miami Marlins Recap
The Miami Marlins come into this game looking to add on to their 8-6 win over the Phillies last time out to sit at 55-54 this season. After this series, the Marlins will head on the road for a series against the Atlanta Braves.
Marlins Win 3 Straight
Xavier Edwards has 116 hits with 14 doubles, 6 triples, 6 home runs and 39 RBIs while Otto Lopez has 138 hits with 27 doubles, 7 triples, 9 homers and 50 RBIs and Liam Hicks has added 95 hits with 9 doubles, 14 home runs and 60 RBIs. Connor Norby has 41 hits with 12 doubles, 4 home runs and 16 RBIs and Owen Caissie has 52 hits with 12 doubles, 12 homers and 50 RBIs. Jakob Marsee also has 69 hits with 12 doubles, 3 triples, 5 home runs and 26 RBIs this season. Kyle Stowers has also chipped in 73 hits with 19 doubles, 3 triples, 14 home runs and 46 RBIs.
New York Mets Recap
The New York Mets come into this game looking to bounce back from their loss at the hands of Atlanta by a final score of 1-0 to sit at 46-63 this season. After this series, the Mets will head on the road for a series against the Cleveland Guardians.
Mets Have Three-Game Win Streak Snapped
Juan Soto has 83 hits with 8 doubles, 21 home runs and 52 RBIs. Brett Baty has 70 hits with 13 doubles, a triple, 6 home runs and 33 RBIs. Marcus Semien also has 68 hits with 8 doubles, 12 home runs and 35 RBIs as well this season. Bo Bichette also has 110 hits with 15 doubles, 10 home runs and 53 RBIs as well this season. Francisco Alvarez has also added 61 hits with 8 doubles and 12 home runs this season. Carson Benge also has 102 hits with 14 doubles, 2 triples, 11 home runs and 41 RBIs and Mark Vientos has added 50 hits with 9 doubles, 11 home runs and 35 RBIs.
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets Betting Trends: July 30, 2026
Probable Starting Pitcher: Nolan McLean Record this season: 7-7 ERA: 3.32
Home Record: 2-6
Last 5 against Marlins: 1-0
Why the New York Mets will win
The Marlins have lost each of their last nine road games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
The home team has won each of the last seven games between the Marlins and Mets.
The Marlins have failed to cover the run line each of their last nine road games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last seven home games against NL East opponents.
The Mets have won the first inning in each of their last five night games against the Marlins.
The Mets have led after 3 innings in each of their last seven Thursday games against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last nine road games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
Probable Starting Pitcher: Eury Perez Record this season: 5-8 ERA: 3.56
Road Record: 2-4
Last 5 against Mets: 1-3
Why the Miami Marlins will win
The Marlins have won each of their last eight games as underdogs following a home win.
The Mets have lost seven of their last eight night games at Citi Field following a loss.
The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last eight games as underdogs following a win.
The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six Thursday games as favorites against National League opponents.
The Marlins have led after 3 innings in each of their last three night games.
The Marlins have led after 5 innings in three of their last four games.
Total Runs Facts
Seven of the Marlins’ last eight games as underdogs against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
Five of the Mets’ last six games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in eight of the last nine night games between the Marlins and Mets.
There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Marlins’ last four games as road underdogs against National League opponents.
New York Mets Player Prop Facts
Francisco Lindor has hit at least one home run in each of the Mets’ last two games as favorites.
Nolan McLean has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances with the Mets as favorites.
Nolan McLean has recorded seven or more strikeouts in six of his last seven appearances.
Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 19 appearances against the Marlins.
Nolan McLean ranks 10th in the league for total Strikeouts (142) this season.
Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts
Griffin Conine has hit a home run in four of the Marlins’ last five games as underdogs against NL opponents.
Eury Perez has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances in night games against NL teams that held a losing record.
Eury Perez has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last six road appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
Otto Lopez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven road appearances after playing the previous day.
Otto Lopez ranks 1st in the league in Hits (138) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
The Mets rank T29th in the league for doubles this season (134).
The Mets rank T29th in the league for doubles this season (134).
The Marlins rank T1st in the league for triples this season (25).
The Marlins rank T1st in the league for triples this season (25).
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Prediction
I’m on the under in this one. I get the case to be made for either side in this game, but this is a battle of top-tier pitching options and I look for that to be the case again here. I think this is going to be a low-scoring game, so I’ll check out the under in this one.
