| MATCHUP | Miami Marlins | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 26-31 | 23-33 |
| Spread | -1.5 152 | +1.5 -185 |
| Moneyline | -105 | -115 |
| Total | Over 7.5 (-102) | Under 7.5 (-118) |
| Where | Citi Field, Queens, New York | |
| When | Friday, May 29, 2026 | |
| Time | 07:10 PM EDT | |
| TV | ESPN Unlmtd | |
In this article, we will formulate a Marlins vs Mets Prediction for this MLB matchup on Friday, May 29th in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
New York Mets Preview
The New York Mets have a 23-33 record this season and are sitting in the 5th place of the NL East. They have a 12-15 home record and are coming off a 4-2 home win against the Reds. They will face the Mariners and the Padres next.
The Mets have a .226 batting average this season, .292 OBP and .350 Slugging percentage. New York’s pitching staff has a 3.91 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Carson Benge is the team’s best hitter with a .247 batting average. Bo Bichette leads the team in RBI with 27, while Juan Soto adds a team-high 12 home runs.
Freddy Peralta (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets, and he has a 3-4 record, 3.52 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.
Miami Marlins Preview
The Miami Marlins have a 26-31 record this season and are sitting in the 4th place of the NL East. They have an 8-16 away record and are coming off a 1-2 road defeat against the Blue Jays. They will face the Nationals and the Rays next.
The Marlins have a .245 batting average this season, .320 OBP and .376 Slugging percentage. Miami’s pitching staff has a 4.19 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Otto Lopez is the team’s best hitter with a .342 batting average. Liam Hicks leads the team in RBI with 44, adding a team-high 11 home runs.
Max Meyer (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins, and he has a 5-0 record, 2.52 ERA and 1.05 WHIP.
Miami Marlins @ New York Mets Betting Trends: May 29, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Freddy Peralta Record this season: 3-4 ERA: 3.52
- Home Record: 2-2
- Last 5 against Marlins: 0-4
Why the New York Mets will win
- The Marlins have lost each of their last six road games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
- The home team has won each of the last four games between the Marlins and Mets.
- The Marlins have failed to cover the run line each of their last six road games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
- The Mets have covered the run line in each of their last seven Friday games as home favorites against NL East opponents.
- The Mets have won the first inning in each of their last four night games against the Marlins.
- The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last three road games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
- The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last six road games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Max Meyer Record this season: 5-0 ERA: 2.52
- Road Record: 1-0
- Last 5 against Mets: 2-1
Why the Miami Marlins will win
- The Marlins have won seven of their last eight games as underdogs against the Mets following a loss.
- The Mets have lost each of their last five games as favorites against the Marlins following a win.
- The Mets have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight home games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Marlins have covered the run line in seven of their last eight games as underdogs against the Mets following a loss.
- The Marlins have led after 3 innings in each of their last four road games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Marlins have led after 5 innings in each of their last four road games against National League opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the last seven games between the Marlins and Mets have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Each of the Marlins’ last six night games as underdogs have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 10 of the Mets’ last 11 night games against NL East opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last five games as underdogs against NL East opponents.
New York Mets Player Prop Facts
- Juan Soto has hit at least one home run in each of the Mets’ last five night games.
- Freddy Peralta has recorded seven or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances against NL East opponents.
- Freddy Peralta has recorded a win in six of his last eight appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
- Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 20 appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts
- Kyle Stowers has hit at least one home run in five of his last 11 appearances after not playing the previous day.
- Xavier Edwards has recorded a hit in each of the Marlins’ last seven games as underdogs against NL opponents.
- Otto Lopez ranks 1st in the league in Hits (75) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Mets rank 30th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.350).
- The Mets rank 29th in the league for doubles this season (70).
- The Marlins rank 1st in the league for steals this season (68).
- The Marlins rank 2nd in the league for triples this season (11).
Marlins vs Mets Prediction
The Marlins are 7-1 in their last 8 meetings against the Astros and are 3-1 in their last 4 visits in New York. They swept their previous series this season by 3-0 wins and a combined 10-2 score.
In this Marlins vs Mets Prediction, the Mets are coming as -125 home favorites. The Marlins dominated the Mets just a week ago and now have the pitching edge with the red-hot Max Meyer on the bump, who is coming off back-to-back shutouts, one of them against the Mets and has won all of his five starts this season. On the flip side, Freedy Peralta has given up 7 runs in his last two starts for the Mets and the Marlins have a better offense, so I expect Miami to win this one on the road.