| MATCHUP | Miami Marlins | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 76-80 | 87-69 |
| Spread | +1.5 -126 | -1.5 105 |
| Moneyline | +177 | -218 |
| Total | Over 6.5 (-118) | Under 6.5 (-102) |
| Where | Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois | |
| When | Tuesday, September 22, 2026 | |
| Time | 07:40 PM EDT | |
| TV | MLB.TV | |
In this article, we will formulate a Marlins vs Cubs Prediction for this MLB matchup on Tuesday, September 22nd in the opening game of this series. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Chicago Cubs Preview
The Chicago Cubs have a 87-69 record this season and are sitting in the 2nd place of the NL Central. They have a 45-33 home record and are coming off a 9-1 road win against the Reds. They will face the Red Sox next.
The Chicago Cubs have a .252 batting average this season, .340 OBP and .432 Slugging percentage. Chicago’s pitching staff has a 4.16 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Pete Crow-Armstrong is the team’s best hitter with a .280 batting average, leading the team in RBI with 107 and adding a team-high 45 home runs.
Kevin Gausman (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Cubs, and he has a 9-12 record, 4.55 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.
Miami Marlins Preview
The Miami Marlins have a 76-80 record this season and are sitting in the 3rd place of the NL East. They have a 31-47 away record and are coming off a 3-7 road loss against the Padres. They will face the Braves next.
The Miami Marlins have a .249 batting average this season, .327 OBP and .400 Slugging percentage. Miami’s pitching staff has a 4.16 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. Otto Lopez is the team’s best hitter with a .305 batting average, adding a team-high 71 RBI. Heriberto Hernandez adds a team-high 24 home runs.
Janson Junk (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins, and he has a 6-9 record, 4.50 ERA and 1.34 WHIP.
Miami Marlins @ the Chicago Cubs Betting Trends: September 22, 2026
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Kevin Gausman Record this season: 9-12 ERA: 4.55
- Home Record: 5-5
- Last 5 against Marlins: 1-1
Why the Chicago Cubs will win
- The Cubs have won each of their last nine night games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
- The Marlins have lost 14 of their last 16 road games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Cubs have covered the run line in eight of their last nine night games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
- The Cubs have led after 5 innings in each of their last seven home games.
- The Cubs have led after 3 innings in seven of their last eight home games.
- The Cubs have won the first inning in three of their last four home games against opponents that held a losing record.
- Probable Starting Pitcher: Janson Junk Record this season: 6-9 ERA: 4.50
- Road Record: 3-5
- Last 5 against Cubs: 0-1
Why the Miami Marlins will win
- The Cubs have lost five of their last six games as home favorites following a win.
- The underdogs have won 15 of the Marlins’ last 23 games.
- The Cubs have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 12 games as home favorites following a win.
- The Marlins have covered the run line in eight of their last nine night games against NL Central opponents.
- The Marlins have led after 3 innings in each of their last three night games.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Cubs’ last six home games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Nine of the Marlins’ last 11 road games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Marlins’ last 13 games against NL Central opponents.
- There has been no run scored during the first inning in 15 of the Cubs’ last 17 games against NL East opponents.
Chicago Cubs Player Prop Facts
- Seiya Suzuki has hit a home run in each of the Cubs’ last three home games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
- Kevin Gausman has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last six appearances against NL opponents.
- Kevin Gausman has recorded a win in three of his last four home appearances against NL opponents.
- Nico Hoerner has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances after not playing the previous day.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks T1st in the league in Home Runs (45) this season.
Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts
- Janson Junk has recorded four or more strikeouts in six of his last eight road appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
- Kyle Stowers has hit at least one home run in each of the Marlins’ last two road games against the Cubs.
- Xavier Edwards has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances in night games against NL Central teams that held a winning record.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Cubs rank 1st in the league for runs scored this season (835).
- The Cubs rank 1st in the league for home runs this season (217).
- The Marlins rank T2nd in the league for steals this season (159).
- The Marlins rank 3rd in the league for triples this season (35).
Marlins vs Cubs Prediction
The Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings against the Marlins and have won two of their last three meetings in Chicago.
In this Marlins vs Cubs Prediction, the Cubs are coming as -215 home favorites. The Cubs are the only team with something to play for but I don’t trust Gausman on the mound, who has been up and down lately, while Junk sits on a 4.66 road ERA for the Marlins. Both teams are 14-5-1 to the over in their last 20 games combined, as they both average 12.5 runs combined in their last 10 games against righties. There are winds blowing in in Wrigley but I still believe that this game will go over the 6.5 runs.