Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves Prediction MLB Picks 8/1/24

David Racey

1 year ago

Atlanta Braves (58-49) vs Miami Marlins (40-68)

Game Info: Thursday, August 1, 2024 at 7:20 pm (Truist Park)

The Line: Betting Odds: Atlanta Braves -210 / Miami Marlins +170 — Over/Under: 8.5

In this article we will formulate a Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, August 1st at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia. To formulate this prediction for game one in the series, we will examine:

The Marlins recent form and recent player performance
The Braves recent form and recent play performance
Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Miami
Recent Betting trends and streaks involving Atlanta
Recent betting trends in games played between Miami and Atlanta
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for Today’s Game between Miami and Atlanta

Marlins Pick Up Another Win

The Miami Marlins are 40-68 this year and they have won three of their last five games. Miami is coming off of a series split with Tampa Bay, where they won one game and lost one game. Prior to that series, the Marlins won two out of three against the Brewers, won two out of three against the Orioles, and split four games with the Mets. Miami is 8-5 in their last 13 games and they are last in the NL East.

The Miami pitching staff has a 4.51 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP, and a .254 opponent batting average. The Marlins offense has scored 392 runs with a .237 batting average and a .290 on base percentage. Jake Burger is batting .239 with 14 home runs and 49 RBI’s for the Marlins this season. Miami has scored at least six runs in six of their last eight games.

Braves Offense is Picking Up the Pace

The Atlanta Braves are 58-49 this season and they have won four of their last five games. Atlanta is coming off of a series win against Milwaukee, where they won two out of three games. Prior to that series, the Braves split four games with the Mets, lost both games against the Reds, and lost two out of three against the Cardinals. Atlanta is 4-7 in their last 11 games and they are second in the NL East.

The Atlanta pitching staff has a 3.47 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a .235 opponent batting average. The Braves offense has scored 455 runs with a .240 batting average and a .303 on base percentage. Marcell Ozuna is batting .301 with 31 home runs and 84 RBI’s for the Braves this season. Atlanta has scored at least five runs in three of their last four games.

Starting Pitchers

The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Max Meyer, who is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP over 21.0 innings pitched this year. Meyer has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts, but three of those outings came in early April. The projected starting pitcher for Atlanta is Charlie Morton, who is 5-6 with a 4.16 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP over 106.0 innings pitched this year. Morton has allowed at least three earned runs in three of his last four starts.

Why the Marlins will beat the Braves

The Braves have lost four of their last five games as favorites against National League opponents.
The Marlins have won three of their last four games as underdogs after playing the previous day.
The Braves have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine home games against National League opponents following a win.
The Marlins have covered the run line in six of their last seven games after playing the previous day.
The Marlins have led after 3 innings in four of their last five games as road underdogs.

Total Runs Facts

Each of the Marlins’ last eight night games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
Each of the Braves’ last four home games after playing the previous day have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Braves’ last four night games.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Marlins’ last four games against NL East opponents.

Atlanta Braves Player Prop Facts

Jorge Soler has recorded a Double in four of his last five home appearances against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
Eddie Rosario has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Braves’ last five home games against NL opponents.
Charlie Morton has recorded a win in each of his last three appearances against the Marlins at Truist Park.
Charlie Morton has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five home appearances against opponents that held a losing record.
Marcell Ozuna has scored at least one run in nine of the Braves’ last 10 night games.
Ozzie Albies has hit a home run in each of his last two appearances against the Marlins at Truist Park.
Ozzie Albies has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 21 appearances at Truist Park against NL opponents that held a losing record.
Ozzie Albies has recorded at least one total base in each of his last 21 appearances at Truist Park against NL opponents that held a losing record.
Ozzie Albies has recorded at least one Single in each of his last 11 appearances at Truist Park against NL East opponents that held a losing record.
Marcell Ozuna ranks 7th amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.584) this season.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

Jake Burger has hit a home run in each of his last two road appearances against the Braves.
Jake Burger has scored at least one run in six of his seven previous appearances against the Braves after playing the previous day.
Jake Burger has recorded a Single in four of the Marlins’ last five night games.
Jesus Sanchez has recorded at least one total base in each of his last seven appearances at Truist Park against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
Jesus Sanchez has recorded a hit in each of his last seven appearances at Truist Park.

Matchup/League Facts

The Atlanta Braves rank 2nd in the league for ERA this season (3.47).
The Atlanta Braves rank 2nd in the league for strikeouts this season (971).
The Miami Marlins rank 29th in the league for RBI’s this season (381).
The Miami Marlins rank 29th in the league for slugging percentage this season (.365).