New York (53-41) vs Kansas City (46-48)
July 11, 2025 at 08:10 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Kansas City +1.5 — Over/Under: +9.5
In this article we will formulate a Mets vs Royals prediction for this MLB game on Friday, July 11th at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
New York Mets Betting Preview
The New York Mets are 53-41 this season after they lost two out of three against Baltimore by scores of 7-6, 1-3, and 3-7. In their game three loss, New York led 2-0 in the first inning, but they allowed seven of the last eight runs in the game for the loss. The Mets recorded five hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Baty, Alonso, and Soto, who all had one RBI in the loss. New York started Waddell, who allowed four hits and three earned runs over 3.0 innings, while Hagenman picked up the loss in relief.
Prior to that series, the Mets won two out of three against the Yankees and two out of three against the Brewers. New York has lost three of their last four games and they are currently second in the NL East standings. The New York pitching staff has a 3.59 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .237 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 413 runs with a .244 batting average and a .323 on base percentage this season. Pete Alonso has led New York with 21 home runs and 76 RBIs, while Juan Soto has added 21 home runs and 53 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Kodai Senga, who is 7-3 with a 1.47 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP over 73.2 innings pitched this season.
Kansas City Royals Betting Preview
The Kansas City Royals are 46-48 this year after they swept Pittsburgh in three games by scores of 9-3, 4-3, and 4-3. In their game three win, Kansas City blew a 3-0 lead in the sixth inning, but they scored the winning run in the eighth. The Royals recorded 11 hits in the game and they were led by Perez and Caglianone, who both had two RBIs in the win. KC started Bubic, who allowed six hits and three earned runs over 5.2 innings, while Erceg got the win and Estevez picked up the save.
Prior to that series, the Royals won two out of three against the Diamondbacks and split four games with the Mariners. Kansas City has won six of their last seven games and they are currently second in the AL Central standings. The Kansas City pitching staff has a 3.46 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and a .235 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 321 runs with a .245 batting average and a .300 on base percentage this season. Vinnie Pasquantino has led KC with 15 home runs and 56 RBIs, while Bobby Witt has added 13 home runs and 52 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Kansas City is Michael Wacha, who is 4-9 with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP over 101.0 innings pitched this year.
Why the Mets will beat the Royals
The Royals have lost nine of their last 10 games at Kauffman Stadium against teams that held a winning record.
The Mets have won four of their last five night games against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
The Royals have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven games at Kauffman Stadium following a home win.
The Mets have covered the run line in five of their last six road games against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
The Mets have led after 3 innings in four of their last five night games against AL Central opponents.
Total Runs Facts
Five of the Mets’ last six road games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
Five of the Royals’ last six games against NL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Mets’ last seven games as road favorites against AL Central opponents.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Royals’ last five games as underdogs against NL East opponents
Kansas City Royals Player Prop Facts
Bobby Witt Jr. has hit a home run in three of the Royals’ last four night games against NL opponents that held a winning record.
Michael Wacha has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last six home appearances against NL East opponents.
Maikel Garcia has recorded at least one hit in each of the Royals’ last 12 home games against NL opponents.
Michael Wacha has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances against NL East opponents that held a winning record.
Salvador Perez has recorded a Double in three of the Royals’ last four games against NL East opponents at Kauffman Stadium.
New York Mets Player Prop Facts
Juan Soto has hit a home run in each of his last three appearances with his team as a road favorite against AL Central opponents.
Nick Madrigal has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven road appearances against AL Central opponents.
Kodai Senga has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances with the Mets as favorites.
Mets vs Royals Prediction
Kansas City comes into this contest looking to get their fifth straight win, as they have allowed three runs or fewer in four straight games. The Royals are 23-24 at home this year, while the Mets are 20-27 on the road. New York is coming off of a disappointing double header on Thursday, but they are starting Senga, who has been outstanding this year, but is coming off of the IL. The Royals are starting Wacha, who has allowed nine earned runs and 12 hits in his last 9.0 innings. Take the Mets here.