Mets vs Nationals Prediction 5/21/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Mets vs Nationals prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, May 21st at Nationals Park in Washington, DC. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 21-28 this season after they lost two of the first three games in this series by scores of 16-7, 6-9, and 4-8. In game three, New York cut the deficit to 4-2 in the third inning, but they allowed four of the last six runs for the loss. The Mets recorded seven hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Soto, who went 2-4 with two home runs and three RBIs. Thornton allowed four hits and four earned runs over 4.1 innings for the loss, while Kimbrel allowed two earned runs in relief. Prior to this series, New York won two out of three against the Yankees and all three against the Tigers. 

This season, New York has a 3.91 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and a .234 opponent batting average, while they have scored 202 runs with a .232 batting average and a .297 on base percentage. Mark Vientos has led the Mets with six home runs and 22 RBIs, while Bo Bichette has added five home runs and 25 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for New York is David Peterson, who is 2-4 with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP over 43.1 innings pitched this season. 

Washington Nationals Betting Preview

The Washington Nationals are 25-25 this year after they won game three by a score of 8-4 last night. Washington scored three runs in the first inning and they led the entire game for the nice win. The Nationals recorded 10 hits in the game and they were led by Abrams, who went 2-4 with one home run and three RBIs. Littell allowed five hits and two earned runs over 5.0 innings for the win, while Alvarez allowed two earned runs, but got the save. Prior to this series, Washington won two out of three against the Orioles and two out of three against the Reds. 

This season, Washington has a 5.06 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP and a .260 opponent batting average, while they have scored 271 runs with a .245 batting average and a .326 on base percentage. CJ Abrams has led the Nationals with nine home runs and 39 RBIs, while James Wood has added 13 home runs and 34 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Washington is Cade Cavalli, who is 2-2 with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP over 46.2 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Washington Nationals will win

• The Nationals have won four of their last five games as home underdogs against the Mets.
• The Mets have lost four of their last five games as favorites against NL East opponents.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight day games against National League opponents following a loss.
• The Nationals have covered the run line in five of their last six day games against National League opponents that held a losing record.
• The Nationals have led after 3 innings in each of their last four games as home underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The Nationals have led after 5 innings in four of their last five home games against National League opponents that held a losing record.

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Nationals have lost five of their last six home games against National League opponents following a home win.
• The Mets have won four of their last five day games against NL East opponents following a road loss.
• The Nationals have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight home games against National League opponents following a win.
• The Mets have covered the run line in six of their last eight day games at Nationals Park following a loss.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Nationals’ last six games as underdogs against National League opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Mets’ last five games have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Nationals’ last seven games as home underdogs against NL East opponents.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 10 of the Mets’ last 12 day games.

Washington Nationals Player Prop Facts

• Jacob Young has hit a home run in each of the Nationals’ last two day games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Luis Garcia has recorded two or more hits in each of the Nationals’ last three day games against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Juan Soto has recorded at least one hit in each of the Mets’ last nine games against the Nationals.
• Juan Soto has hit at least one home run in each of the Mets’ last two games against the Nationals.

Mets vs Nationals Prediction 

New York comes into this matchup looking to split the four game series with a win, but they have allowed 24 runs in the first three games. The Mets are 10-15 on the road this year, while the Nationals are 10-15 at home. Washington has scored at least seven runs in four of their last five games and they are starting Cavalli, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in five straight outings. New York is going with Peterson, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five appearances. Peterson has shown a lot of improvement recently, so I like the Mets to win here.

David Racey's Pick: Mets ML