Mets vs Marlins Prediction 5/22/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Mets vs Marlins prediction for this MLB game on Friday, May 22nd at loanDepot park in Miami, Florida. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 22-28 this year after they split four games with the Nationals by scores of 16-7, 6-9, 4-8, and 2-1. In game four, New York scored both runs in the third inning, which was enough to get the low scoring win. The Mets recorded six hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Bichette, who went 1-4 with two RBIs. Peterson allowed four hits and one earned run over 5.0 innings for the win, while Williams picked up the save. Prior to that series, New York won two out of three against the Yankees and all three against the Tigers. 

This season, New York has a 3.85 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and a .233 opponent batting average, while they have scored 204 runs with a .232 batting average and a .297 on base percentage. Mark Vientos has led the Mets with six home runs and 22 RBIs, while Bo Bichette has added five home runs and 27 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Tobias Myers, who is 0-1 with a 3.41 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP over 29.0 innings pitched this year. 

Miami Marlins Betting Preview

The Miami Marlins are 22-29 this season after they lost three out of four against the Braves by scores of 12-0, 4-8, 1-9, and 3-9. In game four, Miami cut the deficit to 3-2 in the fourth inning, but they allowed the next three runs in the loss. The Marlins recorded six hits in the game and they were led by Stowers, who went 2-4 with two home runs and two RBIs. Alcantara allowed nine hits and six earned runs over 6.0 innings for the loss, while Gibson allowed two earned runs in relief. Prior to that series, Miami lost two out of three against the Rays and two out of three against the Twins. 

This season, Miami has a 4.39 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .231 opponent batting average, while they have scored 221 runs with a .244 batting average and a .320 on base percentage. Liam Hicks has led the Marlins with nine home runs and 42 RBIs, while Otto Lopez has added four home runs and 21 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Eury Perez, who is 2-6 with a 5.33 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP over 52.1 innings pitched this season. 

Why the Miami Marlins will win

• The Mets have lost each of their last six games at LoanDepot Park following a win.
• The Marlins have won each of their last six night games against the Mets following a home loss.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine road games against NL East opponents following a road win.
• The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last five games against the Mets following a loss.
• The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five road games against opponents that held a losing record.

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Marlins have lost five of their last six night games against National League opponents.
• The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last seven home games following a home loss.
• The Mets have led after 3 innings in three of their last four games at LoanDepot Park against NL East opponents that held a losing record.

Total Runs Facts

• Each of the Marlins’ last nine games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the Mets’ last four night games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
• The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the last seven games between the Mets and Marlins.
• The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of Freddy Peralta’s last seven appearances as a starter.

Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts

• Xavier Edwards has hit a home run in four of the Marlins’ last seven games at LoanDepot Park.
• Xavier Edwards has recorded at least one hit in each of the Marlins’ last 13 games against NL opponents.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Juan Soto has hit at least one home run in three of the Mets’ last four games against opponents that held a losing record.
• Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 19 appearances against the Marlins.

Mets vs Marlins Prediction 

Miami comes into this matchup looking to snap a three game losing streak and they have allowed 26 runs during that span. The Marlins are 15-15 at home this year, while the Mets are 11-15 on the road. New York has won three of their last five games, but they have allowed 6+ runs in four of their last five. The Mets are going with an opener, while the Marlins are going with Perez, who has allowed 13 earned runs in his last 16.0 innings. Take the Mets on the road here.

David Racey's Pick: Mets ML