Mets vs Guardians Prediction 8/4/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

In this article we will formulate a Mets vs Guardians prediction for this MLB game on Tuesday, August 4th at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup. 

New York Mets Betting Preview

The New York Mets are 47-66 this season after they lost three out of four against the Marlins by scores of 4-2, 2-5, 2-6, and 0-2. In game four, New York allowed one run in the fifth inning and another in the ninth in the shutout loss. The Mets recorded five hits in the game and they were led by Young, who went 1-3 with one walk. Stock allowed three hits and one earned run over 5.0 innings for the loss, while Williams allowed one earned run in relief. Prior to that series, New York won two out of three against the Braves, but lost two out of three against the Dodgers before that. 

This season, New York has a 4.10 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and a .237 opponent batting average, while they have scored 457 runs with a .232 batting average and a .303 on base percentage. Juan Soto (IL) has led the Mets with 21 home runs and 52 RBIs, while Bo Bichette has added 10 home runs and 53 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for New York is Sean Manaea, who is 2-5 with a 4.42 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP over 91.2 innings pitched this season. 

Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians are 57-56 this year after they lost two out of three against the Diamondbacks by scores of 1-4, 8-12, and 5-0. In game three, Cleveland took the lead in the third inning and never looked back in the shutout win. The Guardians recorded eight hits and they committed two errors in the game, while they were led by DeLauter, who went 2-4 with three RBIs. Williams allowed one hit and zero earned runs over 5.2 innings for the win, while Smith closed out the win. Prior to that series, Cleveland won two out of three against the Reds, but lost all three against the Rays. 

This season, Cleveland has a 3.76 ERA with a 1.26 WHIP and a .238 opponent batting average, while they have scored 446 runs with a .231 batting average and a .310 on base percentage. Chase DeLauter has led the Guardians with 12 home runs and 55 RBIs, while Angel Martinez has added 11 home runs and 33 RBIs. The projected starting pitcher for Cleveland is Joey Cantillo, who is 8-6 with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP over 113.2 innings pitched this year. 

Why the Cleveland Guardians will win

• The Guardians have won each of their last five games against the Mets following a win.
• The Mets have lost four of their last five games.
• The Guardians have covered the run line in each of their last four games against the Mets.
• The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last three games.
• The Guardians have led after 5 innings in four of their last five night games against the Mets at Progressive Field.
• The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in nine of their last 11 games as road underdogs.

Why the New York Mets will win

• The Guardians have lost each of their last four games as favorites against National League opponents following a win.
• The underdogs have won four of the Guardians’ last five games at Progressive Field.
• The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in 13 of their last 14 night games at Progressive Field following a home win.
• The underdogs have covered the run line in eight of the last nine games between the Mets and Guardians.
• The Mets have led after 5 innings in six of their last eight night games against AL Central opponents.

Total Runs Facts

• Five of the Mets’ last six road games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• Five of the Guardians’ last six games as favorites have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in seven of the Mets’ last eight games against AL Central opponents.
• There has been at least one run scored in the first inning in six of the Guardians’ last seven night games at Progressive Field.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

• Joey Cantillo has recorded seven or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances with the Guardians as favorites.
• Joey Cantillo has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances at Progressive Field against opponents that held a losing record.
• Steven Kwan has recorded at least one hit in each of the Guardians’ last eight home games against NL opponents.
• Patrick Bailey has hit a home run in two of his last three home appearances.

New York Mets Player Prop Facts

• Francisco Lindor has hit a home run in each of the Mets’ last three games as underdogs against AL opponents.
• Sean Manaea has recorded five or more strikeouts in each of his last four road appearances against AL Central opponents.
• Bo Bichette has recorded at least one hit in each of his last eight appearances in night games against AL Central teams that held a winning record.

Mets vs Guardians Prediction 

New York comes into this matchup on a three game losing streak and they have scored two runs or fewer in four of their last five games. The Mets are 22-32 on the road this year, while the Guardians are 28-28 at home. Cleveland has lost three of their last five games, but they have scored 5+ runs in three of their last four. The Guardians are starting Cantillo, who has allowed 4+ earned runs in two of his last three starts, while Manaea has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four outings. Take the under here.

David Racey's Pick: Under 7.5