Miami (42-49) vs Cincinnati (47-46)
July 10, 2025 at 05:10 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Cincinnati -1.5 — Over/Under: +9.5
In this article we will formulate a Marlins vs Reds prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, July 10th at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Miami Marlins Betting Preview
The Miami Marlins are 42-49 this year after they won two of the first three games in this series by scores of 5-1, 12-2, and 2-7. In their game three loss, Miami allowed the first six runs in the game, but they did score two times late to avoid the shutout. The Marlins recorded seven hits in the game and they were led by Hernandez and Norby, who both had one RBI in the loss. Miami started Alcantara, who allowed nine hits and six earned runs over 5.0 innings for the loss, while Bellozo allowed one earned run over 3.0 relief innings.
Prior to this series, the Marlins lost two out of three against the Brewers, but did win two out of three against the Twins before that. Miami has won 12 of their last 16 games and they are currently third in the NL East standings. The Miami pitching staff has a 4.65 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP and a .253 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 389 runs with a .253 batting average and a .315 on base percentage this season. Kyle Stowers has led Miami with 16 home runs and 48 RBIs, while Agustin Ramirez has added 14 home runs and 40 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Cal Quantrill, who is 3-7 with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP over 76.2 innings pitched this year.
Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview
The Cincinnati Reds are 47-46 this season after they won game three by a score of 7-2 on Wednesday night. Cincinnati jumped out to a 6-0 lead in the fourth inning and they added an insurance run in the eighth to seal the victory. The Reds recorded 11 hits in the game and they were led by De La Cruz and Marte, who both had two RBIs in the win. Cincinnati started Abbott, who allowed six hits and one earned run over 7.2 innings for the win, while Pagan allowed one earned run in relief.
Prior to this series, the Reds lost two out of three against the Phillies and two out of three against the Red Sox. Cincinnati has lost four of their last five games and they are currently fourth in the NL Central standings. The Cincinnati pitching staff has a 4.00 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP and a .237 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 425 runs with a .244 batting average and a .315 on base percentage this season. Elly De La Cruz has led Cincinnati with 18 home runs and 62 RBIs, while Spencer Steer has added 10 home runs and 37 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Cincinnati is Nick Lodolo, who is 5-6 with a 3.58 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP over 100.2 innings pitched this season.
Why the Reds will beat the Marlins
The Reds have won four of their last five night games at Great American Ball Park following a home win.
The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last six night games against the Marlins at Great American Ball Park following a home win.
The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six night games against the Reds following a road loss.
The Marlins have trailed after 3 innings in three of their last four games.
Why the Marlins will beat the Reds
The Marlins have won seven of their last eight games as underdogs following a loss.
The Reds have lost four of their last five games as home favorites against National League opponents following a home win.
The Marlins have covered the run line in each of their last nine games following a loss.
The Reds have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as favorites following a win.
The Marlins have led after 5 innings in three of their last four games against the Reds at Great American Ball Park.
Total Runs Facts
Six of the Marlins’ last eight road games have gone OVER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Reds’ last five games as home favorites against NL East opponents.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of the Marlins’ last five night games.
Cincinnati Reds Player Prop Facts
Nick Lodolo has recorded seven or more strikeouts in three of his last four appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
Jose Trevino has hit a home run in three of his last seven home appearances against NL opponents that held a losing record.
TJ Friedl has recorded at least one hit in 14 of his last 16 appearances in night games against NL East teams that held a losing record.
Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts
Otto Lopez has hit a home run in two of his last three appearances in night games against NL teams that held a winning record.
Otto Lopez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 road appearances.
Marlins vs Reds Prediction
Cincinnati finally snapped their losing streak with a nice win on Wednesday night and they will try for the series split here. The Reds are 25-21 at home this year, while the Marlins are 22-22 on the road. Miami has played well over the last few weeks and they have jumped Atlanta in the standings, and they are stating Quantrill, who has allowed two earned runs in three straight outings. Cincinnati is turning to Lodolo, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. Both of these starting pitchers have been decent in recent outings and with Cincinnati being inconsistent at the plate, I like the under here.