Miami (58-65) vs Boston (68-56)
August 17, 2025 at 01:35 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Boston -1.5 — Over/Under: +8.5
In this article we will formulate a Marlins vs Red Sox prediction for this MLB game on Sunday, August 17th at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Miami Marlins Betting Preview
The Miami Marlins are 58-65 this season after they lost the first two games in this series by scores of 1-2 and 5-7. In their game two loss, Miami fell behind 7-0, but did score the last five runs to make the game interesting. The Marlins recorded eight hits in the game and they were led by Ramirez and Johnston, who both had solo home runs. Miami started Quantrill, who allowed eight hits and seven earned runs over 3.2 innings for the loss, while Zuber and Simpson combined for 4.1 scoreless innings in relief.
Prior to this series, the Marlins lost two out of three against the Guardians and four out of five against the Braves. Miami has lost seven of their last eight games and they are currently third in the NL East standings. The Miami pitching staff has a 4.56 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .249 opponent batting average, while the offense has scored 531 runs with a .252 batting average and a .315 on base percentage this season. Kyle Stowers has led Miami with 25 home runs and 73 RBIs, while Agustin Ramirez has added 18 home runs and 56 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Miami is Janson Junk, who is 6-2 with a 4.06 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP over 75.1 innings pitched this season.
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
The Boston Red Sox are 68-56 this year after they won game two by a score of 7-5 on Saturday. Boston led the entire game, but they had some issues in the ninth inning, before hanging on for the win. The Red Sox recorded nine hits and they committed one error in the game, while they were led by Story, who went 2-4 with one home run and three RBIs in the win. Boston started Bello, who allowed four hits and two earned runs over 6.1 innings for the win, while Chapman picked up the save.
Prior to this series, the Red Sox lost two out of three against the Astros and two out of three against the Padres. Boston has won three of their last four games and they are currently second in the AL East standings. The Boston pitching staff has a 3.73 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP and a .245 opponent batting average, while their offense has scored 623 runs with a .253 batting average and a .325 on base percentage this season. Wilyer Abreu has led Boston with 21 home runs and 67 RBIs, while Trevor Story has added 19 home runs and 79 RBIs this year. The projected starting pitcher for Boston is Garrett Crochet, who is 13-5 with a 2.48 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP over 152.1 innings pitched this year.
Why the Red Sox will beat the Marlins
- The Red Sox have won 15 of their last 16 home games after playing the previous day.
- The Marlins have lost each of their last seven games against the Red Sox following a loss.
- The Red Sox have covered the run line in nine of their last 10 home games against National League opponents after playing the previous day.
- The Marlins have failed to cover the run line in five of their last six games as underdogs against the Red Sox following a road loss.
- The Marlins have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last three road day games.
Total Runs Facts
- Eight of the Red Sox’s last nine games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
- Four of the Marlins’ last five games as underdogs against the Red Sox have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Marlins’ last seven games against American League opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in six of the Red Sox’s last seven games against NL East opponents.
Boston Red Sox Player Prop Facts
- Ceddanne Rafaela has recorded a Double in each of the Red Sox’s last four day games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
- Trevor Story has hit a home run in each of the Red Sox’s last three day games against opponents that held a losing record.
- Trevor Story has recorded at least one hit in each of his 14 previous appearances with his team as a home favorite against the Marlins.
Miami Marlins Player Prop Facts
- Otto Lopez has recorded at least one hit in nine of his last 10 road appearances against AL East opponents.
- Kyle Stowers has hit at least one home run in three of his last five appearances against AL East opponents.
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Marlins vs Red Sox Prediction
Boston has won the first two games in this series and they are looking for the series sweep, as they continue to play very good baseball. The Red Sox are 41-22 at home this year, while the Marlins are 30-34 on the road. Miami has lost seven of their last eight games and they are starting Junk, who has allowed 3, 3, 6, 3, and 4 earned runs in his last five starts. Boston is going with Crochet, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five outings. Take the Red Sox -1.5 here.