Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction 10/4/2025 Today’s MLB Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Oct 1, 2025; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani (17) runs towards second base against the Cincinnati Reds in the seventh inningduring game two of the Wildcard round for the 2025 MLB playoffs at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Los Angeles Dodgers
Philadelphia Phillies
Team Records
93-69
96-66
Where
Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
When
Saturday, October 4, 2025
Time
06:38 PM EDT
TV
TBS
The Los Angeles Dodgers and the Philadelphia Phillies meet Saturday in MLB action from Citizens Bank Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The Los Angeles Dodgers will send out Shohei Ohtani for the start here and Ohtani was 1-1 with a 2.87 ERA and 62 strikeouts in the regular season. Cristopher Sanchez will get the start for the Phillies here and was 13-5 with a 2.50 ERA and 212 strikeouts in the regular season.
Los Angeles Dodgers Recap
The Los Angeles Dodgers come into this series off of their win over the Reds in the NL Wild Card round thanks to an 8-4 win in the finale in game two.
Dodgers Only Team To Sweep In Wild Card Round
Shohei Ohtani has 172 hits including 25 doubles, 55 home runs, 102 RBIs and 9 triples. Michael Conforto has 83 hits with 20 doubles while Teoscar Hernandez has 126 hits with 25 home runs, 29 doubles and 89 RBIs as well this season. Ohtani has a team-high 20 stolen bases while Max Muncy has 10 doubles but also has 83 strikeouts so far this season. Mookie Betts has also chipped in 20 home runs and 82 RBIs as well on the year. Freddie Freeman has also logged 164 hits with a team-high 39 doubles, 24 home runs and 90 RBIs. Andy Pages also has 158 hits with 27 doubles, 27 home runs and 86 RBIs as well this season.
Philadelphia Phillies Recap
The Philadelphia Phillies come into the NLDS as the 2-seed in the National League, finishing the year as the NL East champs with a 96-66 record.
Phillies Looking For Third NLDS Win In Last Four Years
Nick Castellanos has 137 hits with 27 doubles including 17 home runs and 72 RBIs while Kyle Schwarber has 145 hits with a team-high 56 home runs and 132 RBIs but also has a team-high 197 strikeouts as well on the year. Bryce Harper has 12 stolen bases, 32 doubles, 27 home runs and 75 RBIs. Trea Turner also has 179 hits with 7 triples, 15 home runs, 69 RBIs and a team-high 36 stolen bases. Max Kepler has 19 doubles and Bryson Stott has 22 doubles, 3 triples, 13 homers and 66 RBIs while Stott also has 24 stolen bases as well this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies Betting Trends: October 4, 2025
Probable Starting Pitcher: Cristopher Sanchez Record this season: 13-5 ERA: 2.50
Home Record: 6-0
Last 5 against Dodgers: 2-0
Why the Philadelphia Phillies will win
The Phillies have won each of their last nine home games against teams that held a winning record.
The Dodgers have lost each of their last five road games against the Phillies following a win.
The Phillies have covered the run line each of their last nine home games against teams that held a winning record.
The Dodgers have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 night games against NL East opponents.
The Phillies have led after 5 innings in each of their last six night games against the Dodgers at Citizens Bank Park.
The Phillies have led after 3 innings in eight of their last nine home games against opponents that held a winning record.
The Dodgers have lost the first inning in four of their last five games at Citizens Bank Park.
Probable Starting Pitcher: Shohei Ohtani Record this season (inc. playoffs): 1-1 ERA: 2.87
Road Record: 0-1
Last 5 against Phillies: 0-0
Why the Los Angeles Dodgers will win
The Dodgers have won each of their last seven games.
The Phillies have lost each of their last four playoff games as favorites following a win.
The Dodgers have covered the run line in each of their last nine playoff games after not playing the previous day.
The Phillies have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six playoff games.
The Dodgers have led after 5 innings in each of their last 10 games against National League opponents that held a winning record.
The Phillies have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record.
Total Runs Facts
Each of the Dodgers’ last six playoff games against NL East opponents have gone OVER the total runs line.
Each of the Phillies’ last four games have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in 10 of the Phillies’ last 11 games as favorites against National League opponents.
The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Dodgers’ last five games at Citizens Bank Park.
Philadelphia Phillies Player Prop Facts
Kyle Schwarber has hit a home run in three of the Phillies’ last four games as favorites against the Dodgers.
Trea Turner has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 12 appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
Kyle Schwarber ranks 2nd in the league in Home Runs (56) this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers Player Prop Facts
Teoscar Hernandez has recorded at least one Double in each of the Dodgers’ last six games as underdogs against NL opponents.
Shohei Ohtani has hit a home run in three of the Dodgers’ last four games as underdogs against NL opponents.
Teoscar Hernandez has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances with the Dodgers as road underdogs.
Shohei Ohtani ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.622) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for hits this season (1426).
The Phillies rank 2nd in the league for batting average this season (.258).
The Dodgers rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (1505).
The Dodgers rank 2nd in the league for runs scored this season (825).
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
I’m on the under in this one. I just think that this is all about the pitching in the opener of the series. Sure, the Dodgers love Shohei Ohtani’s bat, but part of the package deal is his ability on the mound and I just wonder if the layoff combined with Ohtani’s skill with his arm is going to be a bit of a struggle for the Phillies early on. On the other side, Sanchez is one of the more underappreciated lefties in all of baseball, and he’s been known to shut down some potent lineups in his own right this season. All in all, I think we have a duel here, so give me the under in this one.
