Tampa Bay Rays (14-16) vs Kansas City Royals (16-15)
Game Info: Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 1:10 pm (George M. Steinbrenner Field)
The Line: Betting Odds: Tampa Bay Rays -162 / Kansas City Royals +136 — Over/Under: 8
The Kansas City Royals are visiting the Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday, May 1st at the George M. Steinbrenner Field in the third game of this series. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction. We will examine:
The Tampa Bay Rays’ recent form and player performance
The Kansas City Royals’ recent form and player performance
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Tampa Bay Rays
Recent betting trends and streaks involving the Kansas City Royals
Recent betting trends in games played between the Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays
A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for the Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays game
Tampa Bay Rays Preview
The Tampa Bay Rays have a 14-16 record this season and are sitting in third place in the AL East. The Rays have a 9-12 home record and are 11-17 in over/under. They are coming off a 0-3 home defeat by the Royals and are 5-2 in their last 7 games. Under is 5-0 in their last 5 games. The Rays have a .248 batting average this season, a .316 OBP, and a .382 slugging percentage. Tampa’s pitching staff has a 3.42 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. Yandy Diaz leads the Rays with 31 hits and 13 RBI, while Brandon Lowe leads the team in RBI with 15, and Jonathan Aranda is the team’s best hitter with a .299 batting average.
Shane Baz (R) will take the mound for the Rays, and he has a 3-0 record, 2.45 ERA, and 0.99 WHIP. He is coming off a shutout start against the Padres with zero earned runs in 7 innings pitched. This will be his first start against the Royals in his career.
Kansas City Royals Preview
The Kansas City Royals have a 16-15 record this season and are sitting in third place in the AL Central. The Royals have a 5-10 road record and are 10-20 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-0 road victory over the Rays, and have been red-hot lately, with an 8-1 record in their last 9 games. Under is 5-1 in their last 6 games. The Royals have a .228 batting average this season, a .290 OBP, and a .328 Slugging percentage. Kansas’ pitching staff has a 3.20 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Bobby Witt Jr leads the Royals with 38 hits, and he is the team’s best hitter with a .322 batting average. Vinnie Pasquantino leads the team in RBI with 18, adding a team-high 4 home runs.
Seth Lugo (R) will take the mound for the Royals, and he has a 2-3 record, 3.08 ERA, and 1.08 WHIP. He has been significantly worse on the road, with a 4.73 road ERA, but he is coming off a shutout start against the Astros with zero earned runs in 8 innings pitched. He has been terrific against the Rays in his career, with just two earned runs in 13.1 innings pitched in two starts.
Why the Tampa Bay Rays will win
- The Rays have won each of their last eight day games following a home loss.
- The Royals have lost 24 of their last 30 games against AL East opponents following a road win.
- The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last nine Thursday day games against AL Central opponents.
- The Royals have failed to cover the run line in four of their last five day games against the Rays following a win.
- The Rays have led after 5 innings in each of their last three games against opponents that held a winning record.
Why the Kansas City Royals will win
- The road team has won each of the Rays’ last seven games.
- The Rays have lost each of their last seven games against AL Central opponents.
- The road team has covered the run line in each of the Rays’ last seven games.
- The Rays have failed to cover the run line in each of their last eight Thursday games as home favorites against American League opponents.
- The Rays have trailed after 3 innings in seven of their last eight games against American League opponents.
- The Rays have lost the first inning in each of their last four games against opponents that held a winning record at George M. Steinbrenner Field.
- The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in seven of their last eight games against American League opponents.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Royals’ last six games against AL East opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Eight of the Rays’ last nine games against AL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Rays’ last 12 day games against AL Central opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Royals’ last four day games against American League opponents.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Rays rank T3rd in the league for walks allowed this season (82).
- The Rays rank 26th in the league for home runs allowed this season (40).
- The Royals rank 30th in the league for home runs this season (14).
- The Royals rank 29th in the league for runs scored this season (97).
Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction
The Royals have won both meetings against the Rays this season, with a combined 6-1 score. They are 6-3 in their last 9 meetings against the Rays, and under is 5-1 in their last 6 meetings.
In this Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, the Rays are coming as -165 home favorites. This line makes no sense, as the Rays are facing the hottest team in the MLB right now and have looked terrible in the first two games of the series. Both starting pitchers have been looking great so far, and as much as I am tempted to side with the underdog in this game, the value lies in the total. Both teams combined for 4 and 3 runs in the first two games of this series; they both have top-8 bullpen ERA’s and both pitchers have a combined 5.53 ERA and are both coming off shutout performances.
The total for this game is set at 8 runs, and there is no way we are going to see 9 runs in this game, when both teams are averaging just 7.1 combined. Take the under 8 runs.