Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers Prediction 9/6/2025 Today’s MLB Picks

Nikos Lagouretos

2 months ago

Sep 5, 2025; Arlington, Texas, USA; Houston Astros first baseman Christian Walker (8) reacts after striking out during the sixth inning against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

MATCHUP	Astros Houston	Rangers Texas
Team Records	78-65	73-70
Where	Globe Life Field, Arlington, Texas
When	Saturday, September 6, 2025
Time	07:15 PM EDT
TV	FOX

In this article, we will formulate an Astros vs Rangers Prediction for this MLB game on Saturday, September 6th at the Globe Life Field in the second game of this series, with the Rangers having the 1-0 lead. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.

Texas Rangers Preview

The Texas Rangers have a 73-69 record this season and are sitting on the third place of the AL West. The Rangers have a 43-27 home record and are 62-77 in over/under. They are coming off a 4-3 home victory over the Astros, that ended their two-game losing streak. Under is 3-0 in their last 3 games and are playing the Brewers and the Mets next.

The Rangers have a .238 batting average this season, .306 OBP and .389 slugging percentage. Texas’ pitching staff has a 3.43 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Josh Smith leads the Rangers with 114 hits, while Adolis Garcia leads the team in RBI, with 73. Corey Seager is the team’s best hitter with a .271 batting average, adding a team-high 21 home runs.

Jacob deGrom (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Rangers, and he has a 11-6 record, 2.69 ERA and 0.92 WHIP.

Houston Astros Preview

The Houston Astros have a 77-65 record this season and are sitting on the first place of the AL West. The Astros have a 34-33 road record and 65-71 in over/under. They are coming off a 3-4 road defeat by the Rangers, and are 2-5 in their last 7 games. Over is 4-1 in their last 5 games and are playing the Blue Jays and the Braves next.

The Astros have a .253 batting average this season, .318 OBP and .400 slugging percentage. Houston’s pitching staff has a 3.88 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Jose Altuve leads the Astros with 142 hits, adding a team-high 24 home runs. Jeremy Pena is the team’s best hitter with a .304 batting average, while Christian Walker leads the team in RBI with 74.

Hunter Brown (R) is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros, and he has a 10-7 record, 2.34 ERA and 1.01 WHIP.

Why the Texas Rangers will win

The Rangers have won each of their last six games against AL West opponents.
The Astros have lost 15 of their last 17 games after going to extra innings.
The Astros have failed to cover the run line in 11 of their last 12 games after going to extra innings.
The Rangers have covered the run line in each of their last seven Saturday night games against American League opponents.
The Rangers have led after 3 innings in each of their last six games as favorites.
The Rangers have led after 5 innings in each of their last six games as favorites.

Why the Houston Astros will win

The Astros have won 12 of their last 13 games against AL West opponents following a road loss.
The Rangers have lost seven of their last nine games as favorites against the Astros following a win.
The Astros have covered the run line in 14 of their last 15 games as underdogs against American League opponents following a road loss.
The Rangers have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last nine games as favorites against the Astros following a win.
The Astros have led after 3 innings in three of their last four road night games.

Total Runs Facts

Each of the Astros’ last five games after going to extra innings have gone OVER the total runs line.
Five of the Rangers’ last six games as favorites against the Astros have gone UNDER the total runs line.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Astros’ last eight games.
The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in five of the last six night games between the Astros and Rangers at Globe Life Field.

Matchup/League Facts

The Rangers rank 1st in the league for ERA this season (3.43).
The Rangers rank 1st in the league for runs allowed this season (519).
The Astros rank 1st in the league for strikeouts this season (1349).
The Astros rank 26th in the league for triples this season (11).

Astros vs Rangers Prediction

The Rangers are 3-1 in their last 4 head-to-head meetings against the Astros, but the Astros are 4-3 in their last 7 visits in Texas. Under is 4-1 in their last 5 meetings in Texas.

In this Astros vs Rangers Prediction, the Rangers are coming as -120 home favorites. This is the definition of a pitchers duel, as DeGrom goes against Hunter Brown. Both pitchers have been elite this season, with a combined 5.03 ERA, and both are coming into this matchup in excellent form, as they have a 1.76 and 2.08 ERA across their last five starts. Both teams also have top-10 bullpens to back those pitchers up, so I expect runs to come at a premium in this one. Take the under 6.5 runs.