Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres Prediction 8/7/2026 Today’s MLB Picks

The Houston Astros and the San Diego Padres meet Friday in MLB action from Petco Park. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres prediction.

Starting Pitching Matchup

The Houston Astros will send out Ronel Blanco for the start here and Blanco is 0-1 with a 7.36 ERA and 16 strikeouts this season. Robbie Ray will make his Padres debut and is 10-6 with a 3.08 ERA and 107 strikeouts this season.

Houston Astros Recap

The Houston Astros come into this game looking to bounce back from a 5-4 loss at the hands of the Toronto Blue Jays last time out to sit at 59-57 this season. After this series, the Astros will head on the road for a set against the San Francisco Giants.

Astros Alternate Wins & Losses In 4 Straight

Yordan Alvarez has 136 hits with 24 doubles, 35 home runs and 85 RBIs while Christian Walker has 100 hits with 24 doubles, 22 home runs and 63 RBIs on the year. Jose Altuve’s chipped in 87 hits with 14 doubles, 13 home runs and 34 RBIs and Isaac Paredes has 99 hits with 18 doubles, 15 home runs and 60 RBIs. Cam Smith also has 81 hits with 15 doubles, 13 home runs and 40 RBIs.

San Diego Padres Recap

The San Diego Padres come into this game looking to add on to their 5-1 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks last time out to sit at 60-56 this season. After this series, the Padres will take on the Milwaukee Brewers in a series at home.

Padres Looking For Consistency

Jackson Merrill has 106 hits with 18 doubles, 16 home runs and 55 RBIs while Gavin Sheets has 68 hits with 15 doubles, 14 home runs and 43 RBIs as well on the year. Fernando Tatis Jr. has 125 hits with 24 doubles, 9 home runs and 50 RBIs and Xander Bogaerts has 86 hits with 11 doubles, 9 home runs and 41 RBIs. Manny Machado also has 88 hits with 20 doubles, 23 home runs and 70 RBIs as well on the year.

Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres Betting Trends: August 7, 2026

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Robbie Ray      Record this season: 10-6      ERA: 3.08
• Home Record: 6-1
• Last 5 against Astros: 1-3

Why the San Diego Padres will win

• The Padres have won seven of their last eight home games.
• The Astros have lost four of their last five games at Petco Park.
• The Padres have covered the run line each of their last five games against AL West opponents that held a winning record.
• The Astros have failed to cover the run line in eight of their last 10 games against NL West opponents.
• The Astros have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games as road underdogs.
• The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last five road games against NL West opponents.
• The Astros have lost the first inning in three of their last four road games.

• Probable Starting Pitcher: Ronel Blanco      Record this season: 0-1      ERA: 7.36
• Road Record: 0-1
• Last 5 against Padres: –

Why the Houston Astros will win

• The Astros have won each of their last six games as road underdogs following a loss.
• The Padres have lost four of their last five games as favorites against American League opponents.
• The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last 10 games as road underdogs following a loss.
• The Padres have failed to cover the run line in each of their last six games as favorites against American League opponents following a road win.
• The Astros have won the first inning in four of their last five games against NL West opponents.
• The Astros have led after 3 innings in four of their last five night games against NL West opponents.
• The Astros have led after 5 innings in five of their last six games.

Total Runs Facts

• Seven of the Astros’ last eight road games following an extra innings loss have gone OVER the total runs line.
• Each of the last four games between the Astros and Padres at Petco Park have gone UNDER the total runs line.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the Astros’ last six games.
• There has been no run scored during the first inning in seven of Robbie Ray’s last eight home appearances as a starter.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Facts

• Manny Machado has hit at least one home run in four of the Padres’ last five games as home favorites against the Astros.
• Robbie Ray has recorded a win in four of his last five appearances against opponents that held a winning record.
• Robbie Ray has recorded five or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine appearances with his team as a favorite against AL opponents.
• Manny Machado has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 home appearances against the Astros.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks T8th in the league in Hits (125) this season.

Houston Astros Player Prop Facts

• Jeremy Pena has hit a home run in each of the Astros’ last three games against NL opponents.
• Ronel Blanco has recorded six or more strikeouts in five of his last six appearances against NL West opponents.
• Christian Walker has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 19 road appearances against NL West opponents.
• Yordan Alvarez ranks 1st in the league in Home Runs (35) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Padres rank 3rd in the league for steals this season (117).
• The Padres rank 25th in the league for hits this season (903).
• The Astros rank 29th in the league for steals this season (38).
• The Astros rank 29th in the league for walks allowed this season (484).

Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres Prediction

I’m on the Padres in this one. I just think that this is a bad spot for Houston with Blanco going as Blanco hasn’t looked sharp in his outings since returning from the injury and the Padres have been much better against righties this season. So far, these big name pitchers that were traded at the deadline, like Skubal and Mize, haven’t had the best debuts for their new teams but I think Robbie Ray pitches well enough in this game to get the Padres the win.

Chris Ruffolo's Pick: San Diego -115