Houston Astros vs New York Mets Prediction 8/29/2026 Today’s MLB Picks
Chris Ruffolo
Aug 26, 2026; Bronx, New York, USA; Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez (44) singles during the sixth inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
MATCHUP
Houston Astros
New York Mets
Team Records
68-67
60-75
Spread
+1.5 -184
-1.5 151
Moneyline
+121
-130
Total
Over 8 (-108)
Under 8 (-112)
Where
Citi Field, Queens, New York
When
Saturday, August 29, 2026
Time
04:10 PM EDT
TV
ESPN Unlmtd
The Houston Astros and the New York Mets meet Saturday in MLB action from Citi Field. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Houston Astros vs. New York Mets prediction.
Starting Pitching Matchup
The Houston Astros will send out Bennett Sousa for the start here and Sousa is 1-3 with a 6.27 ERA and 21 strikeouts this season. The New York Mets will send out Nolan McLean for the start here and McLean is 9-8 with a 3.21 ERA and 168 strikeouts this season.
Houston Astros Recap
The Houston Astros come into this game looking to add on to their 3-1 win over the Mets last time out to sit at 68-67 this season. After this series, Houston will head home for a series against the Chicago White Sox.
Astros Pick Up Back-To-Back Wins
Going into Friday, Yordan Alvarez has 152 hits with 28 doubles, 36 home runs and 91 RBIs while Christian Walker has 111 hits with 25 doubles, 24 home runs and 75 RBIs on the year. Jose Altuve’s chipped in 102 hits with 17 doubles, 14 home runs and 41 RBIs and Isaac Paredes has 121 hits with 23 doubles, 17 home runs and 73 RBIs. Cam Smith also has 91 hits with 15 doubles, 17 home runs and 48 RBIs.
New York Mets Recap
The New York Mets come into this game looking to bounce back from a 3-1 loss at the hands of the Astros on Friday to sit at 60-75 this season. After this series, the Mets will head on the road for a set against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Mets Lose 3 Straight
Entering Friday, Juan Soto has 83 hits with 8 doubles, 21 home runs and 52 RBIs. Brett Baty has 80 hits with 16 doubles, a triple, 8 home runs and 40 RBIs. Marcus Semien also has 86 hits with 10 doubles, 14 home runs and 43 RBIs as well this season. Bo Bichette also has 138 hits with 21 doubles, 14 home runs and 66 RBIs as well this season. Francisco Alvarez has also added 71 hits with 11 doubles and 13 home runs this season. Carson Benge also has 135 hits with 17 doubles, 3 triples, 16 home runs and 53 RBIs.
Houston Astros @ New York Mets Betting Trends: August 29, 2026
Probable Starting Pitcher: Nolan McLean Record this season: 9-8 ERA: 3.21
Home Record: 3-6
Last 5 against Astros: –
Why the New York Mets will win
The Mets have won five of their last six day games after playing the previous day.
The Astros have lost eight of their last 10 games following a win.
The Astros have failed to cover the run line each of their last five day games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
The Mets have covered the run line in five of their last six games as favorites against AL opponents following a loss.
The Mets have won the first inning in three of their last four games as favorites.
The Astros have trailed after 5 innings in each of their last eight road games against NL opponents that held a losing record.
The Astros have trailed after 3 innings in each of their last six road day games.
Probable Starting Pitcher: Bennett Sousa Record this season: 1-3 ERA: 6.27
Road Record: 0-1
Last 5 against Mets: –
Why the Houston Astros will win
The Mets have lost each of their last seven Saturday day games as home favorites against AL opponents.
The Astros have won eight of their last nine road games against teams that held a losing record.
The Mets have failed to cover the run line in each of their last 13 Saturday games as favorites against AL West opponents.
The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last six day games against the Mets following a win.
The Mets have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games as favorites against AL West opponents.
The Mets have trailed after 3 innings in four of their last five games as favorites against AL West opponents.
Total Runs Facts
Each of the last four games between the Astros and Mets have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Each of the Astros’ last four games as underdogs against the Mets have gone OVER the total runs line.
There has been no run scored during the first inning in each of the last six games between the Astros and Mets.
There has been no run scored during the first inning in four of the Astros’ last five games at Citi Field.
New York Mets Player Prop Facts
Nolan McLean has recorded a win in three of his last four appearances in day games.
Nolan McLean has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his 10 previous appearances against AL opponents.
Francisco Lindor has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 11 appearances against AL West opponents.
Christopher Morel has hit a home run in three of his last four appearances with his team as a favorite against AL West opponents.
Houston Astros Player Prop Facts
Jeremy Pena has hit a home run in three of the Astros’ last four games against NL East opponents.
Jeremy Pena has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 13 appearances against NL East opponents.
Yordan Alvarez ranks 1st amongst qualified players for Slugging Percentage (.607) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
The Mets rank 30th in the league for on-base percentage this season (.305).
The Mets rank 29th in the league for doubles this season (168).
The Astros rank 29th in the league for steals this season (41).
The Astros rank T3rd in the league for home runs this season (179).
Houston Astros vs. New York Mets Prediction
I’m on the Mets here. The Astros won’t win every game and while the Mets have had their fair share of issues, Nolan McLean’s been one of their steadier sources of consistency for much of the season. I think the Mets take care of business and snap this slide so give me the Mets in this one.
