Minnesota Twins (2-4) vs Houston Astros (2-4)
Game Info: Thursday, April 3, 2025 at 4:10 pm (Target Field)
The Line: Betting Odds: Minnesota Twins -125 / Houston Astros +105 — Over/Under: 7
In this article, we will formulate an Astros vs Twins prediction for this MLB game on Thursday, April 3, at Target Field in Baltimore, Maryland. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this MLB matchup.
Houston Astros Betting Preview
The Houston Astros (2-4, 0-0 Away) opened the season with a 2-1 series win over the New York Mets in what turned out to be a low-scoring series as the teams combined for just 11 runs. The Astros then displayed disappointing performances in a three-game series against the San Francisco Giants at home, losing all three and scoring only six runs in the process. In the most recent 6-3 defeat, Yordan Alvarez had a couple of RBIs, while Framber Valdez took a loss after allowing five runs on four hits with nine strikeouts and four walks in 5.0 innings.
This year, the Astros average 2.00 runs per game (30th in the MLB) on a .178/.270/.222 triple-slash. When it comes to pitching, the Astros’ staff has a 3.33 ERA (10th) and 1.07 WHIP (7th). Yordan Alvarez leads the Astros with a .150 batting average, no home runs, and four RBI this season.
Hunter Brown will take the mound for the Astros on Thursday. The 26-year-old right-hander had an 11-9 record last season in 30 starts with a 3.49 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 170.0 innings. This season, Brown took a loss against the Mets as he posted a 3.00 ERA over 6.0 innings of work.
Minnesota Twins Betting Preview
The Minnesota Twins (2-4, 0-0 Home) lost the opening four games of the season but responded with a couple of wins over the Chicago White Sox. The St. Louis Cardinals swept the Twins in a three-game series, and Minnesota lost Game 1 of a three-game series against the White Sox. In those four defeats, Minnesota scored just six runs but bounced back with 8-3 and 6-1 wins to take the series. Harrison Bader and Byron Buxton combined for 5 RBI in the latest victory, while Pablo Lopez got a win after allowing one run (HR) on four hits with five strikeouts and one walk in 7.0 innings.
This season, the Twins average 3.33 runs per game (22nd in the MLB) on a .184/.252/.306 slash line. Regarding pitching, the Twins’ staff has a 5.40 ERA (28th) and 1.44 WHIP (24th). Harrison Bader leads the Twins with a .250 batting average, three home runs, and eight RBI this season.
The projected starting pitcher for the Twins is Joe Ryan, who had a 7-7 record in 23 starts last season with a 3.60 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over 135.0 innings of work. Ryan started against the Cardinals this season in a no-decision; he registered a 1.80 ERA in 5.0 innings.
Why the Astros will beat the Twins
- The Astros have won each of their last 11 Thursday day games against American League opponents that held a losing record.
- The Twins have lost each of their last four games as home favorites.
- The Astros have covered the run line in each of their last eight games as underdogs against American League opponents following a loss.
- The Twins have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last eight games against the Astros following a win.
- The Astros have led after 5 innings in 12 of their last 13 road games against American League opponents.
- The Twins have lost the first inning in three of their last four games against opponents that held a losing record.
- The Twins have trailed after 3 innings in five of their last six home games.
Why the Twins will beat teh Astros
- The Twins have won seven of their last eight day games against AL West opponents.
- The Astros have lost each of their last five day games after playing the previous day.
- The Astros have failed to cover the run line in nine of their last 10 games after playing the previous day.
- The Twins have covered the run line in seven of their last eight day games against AL West opponents.
- The Twins have won the first inning in three of their last four day games against AL West opponents.
- The Twins have led after 3 innings in each of their last four day games against AL West opponents that held a losing record.
- The Twins have led after 5 innings in each of their last four day games against AL West opponents that held a losing record.
Total Runs Facts
- Each of the Astros’ last seven games as road underdogs have gone UNDER the total runs line.
- Eight of the Twins’ last nine home games after playing the previous day have gone OVER the total runs line.
- The ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in each of the Astros’ last seven day games against American League opponents.
- The ‘Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in seven of the Twins’ last eight day games.
Astros vs Twins Prediction
These teams have traded wins in the past few years, as each got five in the last ten H2H duels. I am far from being impressed with Houston’s offense early in the season, but the Astros have a chance to score multiple runs in the opening few innings here, as Ryan struggled against them last year. Ryan had a 6.75 ERA in 10.2 innings against Houston in 2024, while Brown posted a 7.50 ERA in 12.0 innings against the Twins last season. Yordan Alvarez had three homers and seven RBI in 12 at-bats against Ryan, so keep an eye on Alvarez in this one. I am going with Over.